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Amid Mideast conflict, investors cling to faith in the AI build-out

Data center build-out stocks showed impressive resilience to the slump that hit big indexes Tuesday.

In fact, construction companies, server system makers, fiber-optic technology stocks, and memory makers — all cornerstones of the AI trade — were having a pretty good day, suggesting the market sees the wave of AI construction continuing, war or no war.

Optical stocks seen as crucial to efficiently transmitting the flood of information AI data centers both produce and depend on were surging. Corning, Lumentum, Coherent, and Ciena Corp. ramped.

Server rack makers HP Enterprise and Dell jumped. Construction and engineering companies like Sterling Infrastructure, MasTec, and Comfort Systems USA, which have benefited from the growth in building data centers, posted solid gains.

Hard disk drive makers Seagate Technology Holdings and Western Digital were also positive, though other memory plays such as Sandisk and Micron were in the red.

It was an impressive display of positivity on a day when the S&P 500 (SPDR S&P 500 ETF) and the Nasdaq 100 (Invesco QQQ Trust) were both fluttering between positive and negative territory for completely understandable reasons.

After all, the 82nd Airborne is heading to the Middle East, suggesting the US is considering sending troops into Iran. US crude oil is back above $90 a barrel and climbing, as the Strait of Hormuz remains essentially shut.

Additionally, the problems in the private credit market continue, with major fund managers preventing investors from withdrawing all the money they would like to. We even had a weak auction for US two-year Treasury notes — investors seemed to think the offered yield might not be sufficient to offset inflation risks stirred up by the war — that sent short-term interest rates up sharply.

But apparently it will take more than all that for investors to worry that the AI build-out may be halted, delayed, or even just trimmed back.

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United beats Q1 earnings and revenue estimates, lowers full-year profit guidance amid surging jet fuel prices

United Airlines reported its first-quarter earnings results after the bell on Tuesday. The carrier’s shares ticked down in after-hours trading.

For Q1, United reported:

  • Adjusted earnings of $1.19 per share, compared to the Wall Street estimate of $1.08 per share compiled by FactSet.

  • $14.6 billion in revenue, compared to the $14.39 billion consensus estimate.

In the first quarter, United’s fuel expense grew 12.6% from the same period last year to $3.04 billion.

For the second quarter, United expects adjusted earnings per share of between $1 and $2, shy of Wall Street expectations of $2.08. For the full year ahead, United said it expects earnings between $7 and $11 per share, compared to its prior guidance of between $12 and $14 per share.

“Guidance assumes United’s revenue recovers 40% to 50% of the fuel price increases in the second quarter, 70% to 80% of the fuel price increases in the third quarter and 85% to 100% of the fuel price increases in the fourth quarter 2026,” read the company’s investor update.

Earlier this month, United was among the first major US airlines to hike its bag fees amid higher fuel costs. Its shares have fallen more than 15% from a February high days before the war in Iran began.

United has also made waves this month following reports that CEO Scott Kirby had floated the idea of a merger with American Airlines to President Trump. A merger between two of the big four airlines would create a true US behemoth, controlling more than a third of the American market. American Air last week said it wasn’t interested in merging with United and hadn’t held talks on the idea. On Tuesday, Trump told CNBC that he doesn’t like the idea either.

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Hedge funds are following retail traders into the Magnificent 7

Hedge funds are following retail traders into the stocks the masses never stopped buying.

“As we kick off earnings for megacap tech stocks, this stood out: [hedge funds] have started buying Mag7 stocks again this month though positioning remains well below the peak levels seen in early 2016,” wrote Goldman Sachs’ Cullen Morgan.

Goldman PB Mag 7
Source: Goldman Sachs

In early April, JPMorgan strategist Arun Jain noted that retail investors had basically been selling everything but the Magnificent 7 stocks as part of a more cautious stance due to the Iran war.

(Apple has been a long-standing exception to this trend, presumably because retail traders arent fond of its hands-off approach to AI.)

JPM Retail flows

Last August, Jain discussed how retail activity tended to “crowd in” institutional buyers in meme stocks, while Goldman’s John Marshall advised clients to piggyback on stocks beloved by retail traders. Speculative, retail-geared assets proceeded to go on a tremendous run that soured in October.

But there are some early indications that a similar bout of speculative fervor is bubbling up once more.

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POET Technologies surges above $10 for first time in 4 years amid explosion in call volumes

POET Technologies is up nearly 40% this week as options market activity goes haywire in a faint echo of what got the stock on retail traders’ radars in October.

As of 11:12 a.m. ET, more than 10 calls have changed hands for every put traded. This bullish impulse has propelled the stock above the $10 threshold for the first time since March 2022.

Shares of the optical communications firm briefly dipped last week after Wolfpack Research said it was short the company because its investors would be exposed to an “IRS tax nightmare.”

The company responded that day saying it was taking measures for US shareholders that “should mitigate certain potential adverse US federal income tax consequences to it that could otherwise result from the Company’s status as a passive foreign investment company.”

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