AI’s contribution to US stock market wealth: $8.5 trillion

$8.5T

Analysts at consulting firm Pantheon Macroeconomics estimate that the stock market’s enthusiasm for all things AI has added some $8.5 trillion to aggregate US household wealth since late 2022. They wrote:

“The S&P 500 returned about 70% between the start of ChatGPT mania around the end of 2022 to the end of Q2 2025, with roughly half of those returns generated by the ‘magnificent seven’ tech stocks, a very rough proxy for the stock market boost from AI euphoria.

We estimate that translates into a lift to household wealth held in stocks of about $8.5T.”

As my colleague Luke Kawa recently wrote, stock market wealth seems to be underpinning US consumer spending, especially among the richest Americans. Some of that spending may retrench if AI is indeed a bubble — as some have recently mooted — and eventually pops.

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Luke Kawa

4 charts that show the speculative boom is back on

We’re so back.

BRITAIN-LONDON-FIREWORKS-NEW YEAR-CELEBRATION

The Future of the AI boom is coming into view

GE Vernova and Vertiv are giving us a glimpse into the future of the AI boom

GEV’s backlogs are bursting at the seams. One analyst told us he thinks that by the end of this year, GEV could be completely sold out of production capacity for heavy-duty turbines until 2029 or 2030.

Matt Phillips3h

Max Knoblauch3h

Low-cost airlines plunge on report Trump administration is close to $500 million rescue deal for Spirit

Low-budget US airlines are sinking on Wednesday morning following a Wall Street Journal report that the Trump administration is close to making a rescue deal for Spirit Airlines, which is said to be nearing liquidation amid high fuel costs.

Shares of Frontier, Allegiant, JetBlue, and Southwest Airlines all dropped notably.

Per the WSJ, the US government could soon loan Spirit up to $500 million in return for warrants to take a sizable stake in the airline, which has filed for bankruptcy twice since late 2024. Those warrants could give the US government the ability to purchase as much as 90% ownership of Spirit, Bloomberg reports. The carrier has made efforts to emerge from its latest bankruptcy, filed in August, but fuel costs amid the war in Iran have upset the math.

On Tuesday, President Trump told CNBC he would “love somebody to buy Spirit.”

Exclusive | Trump Administration Nearing Rescue Deal for Spirit Airlines

On Tuesday, President Trump told CNBC he would “love somebody to buy Spirit.”

Max Knoblauch7h

Boeing reports better-than-expected Q1 earnings, revenue

Plane maker Boeing reported its first-quarter earnings before the market opened on Wednesday. Its shares climbed more than 3% in premarket trading.

For Q1, Boeing reported:

An adjusted loss of $0.20 per share, compared to the loss of $0.68 per share expected by Wall Street analysts polled by FactSet.
Revenue of $22.22 billion, compared to estimates of $21.85 billion.

Boeing reported -$1.45 billion in free cash flow in Q1, compared to the -$2.34 billion expected by Wall Street. Prior to Wednesday, Boeing had reported two consecutive quarters of positive FCF following six straight quarters of negative results. The company is still guiding for full-year FCF of between $1 billion and $3 billion.

Earlier this month, Boeing announced it had delivered 143 commercial jets in Q1, up 10% from the same period last year and ahead of rival Airbus, which delivered 114. This was Boeing’s first time outdelivering Airbus since 2018.

Matt Phillips7h

GE Vernova, top AI energy play, rises after Q1 report

GE Vernova, a maker of power plant equipment that’s seen orders tied to data centers surge, rose early Wednesday after posting strong Q1 results and lifting full-year sales guidance. The GE spin-off reported:

Adjusted EBITDA of $896 million vs. the $772 million estimate from analysts polled by FactSet.
Total revenue of $9.34 billion vs. the $9.25 billion consensus expectation from analysts polled by FactSet.
Full-year 2026 sales guidance that was lifted to between $44.5 billion and $45.5 billion from prior guidance of between $44 billion and $45 billion, vs. the consensus estimate of $44.64 billion.

“In the quarter, our electrification segment booked $2.4 billion in equipment orders to support data centers, more than all of last year,” said CEO Scott Strazik.

GE Vernova is up some 600% over the last two years through Tuesday’s close, but the majority of those gains were booked by August 2025. After being largely range-bound for months, the stock busted out following the company’s last earnings report, lifting the shares up nearly 50% in 2026.

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