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Ackman's $25B USA fund

Last week we discussed Bill Ackman's pricey IPO plan. The TL;DR was that Ackman was looking to take his hedge fund, Pershing Square, public in late 2025 or early 2026, and he was also actively looking to sell a stake in the firm at a $10.5 billion valuation before the IPO.

At the time, the $10.5 billion valuation for a fund with ~$18.2 billion in AUM, most of which is tied up in a closed-end fund on the European markets, felt high. For comparison, Blue Owl Capital is worth $28 billion with $174 billion in AUM.

However, we noted that this valuation could be reasonable if Pershing's AUM increased. Today, this story is beginning to make more sense. Bloomberg reported that Pershing Square is looking to raise $25 billion, up from a rumored $10 billion, for Pershing Square USA, its new NYSE-listed closed-end fund.

Assuming Pershing successfully raises $25 billion, it stands to make $500 million annually from its 2% management fee (though 20% of that would be used to reduce fees paid by its hedge fund clients). Combined with all of Pershing’s existing fees from its other investment vehicles, the extra cash it stands to generate from Pershing USA makes the $10.5 billion valuation seem far more reasonable.

However, we noted that this valuation could be reasonable if Pershing's AUM increased. Today, this story is beginning to make more sense. Bloomberg reported that Pershing Square is looking to raise $25 billion, up from a rumored $10 billion, for Pershing Square USA, its new NYSE-listed closed-end fund.

Assuming Pershing successfully raises $25 billion, it stands to make $500 million annually from its 2% management fee (though 20% of that would be used to reduce fees paid by its hedge fund clients). Combined with all of Pershing’s existing fees from its other investment vehicles, the extra cash it stands to generate from Pershing USA makes the $10.5 billion valuation seem far more reasonable.

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SpaceX gets a wave of bullish ratings from Wall Street analysts

SpaceX received more than a dozen positive analyst calls on Tuesday — including from major Wall Street banks — as they initiate coverage on Elon Musk’s space and AI company.

SpaceX went public on June 12 at a $2.2 trillion valuation, the largest debut in history. While the company hasn’t yet posted a profit, it seems to have convinced Wall Street that it will get there and grow its valuation on the way.

Of the at least 17 analysts that gave a rating on Tuesday, all but one gave it a “buy” or “outperform” rating. MoffettNathanson was "neutral."

The ratings come as SpaceX joined the Nasdaq 100 index, a benchmark tech-heavy basket of companies that underpins millions of portfolios. The inclusion adds built-in demand for the stock from index funds and ETFs.

Still, SpaceX fell more than 5% on Tuesday amid a broader sell-off, and is currently effectively flat from its opening price of $150 a share.

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Nike sinks to lowest level since 2014 after warning of “challenged” sales environment in Q4 report

Did Nike do it?

Investors had a mixed reaction after the global sports apparel company reported its fourth quarter earnings on Tuesday after the bell. Shares initially rose 5% as Nike beat out Wall Street expectations amid a hefty tariff refund bonus. However, the stock then sank to its lowest level since August 2014 in postmarket trading.

Here are the Q4 numbers:

  • Revenue of $11.0 billion (estimate: $10.8 billion).

  • Adjusted earnings per share of $0.20 (estimate: $0.12).

Ahead of this report, Nike warned that results would be flattered by a one-time tariff refund (now estimated at roughly $0.52 per share for the bottom line). That gave the company an extra cushion in snapping its streak of seven quarters of year-over-year profit declines.

Over the past year, the company had been punished by tariffs on imported goods, stagnant consumer spending, and increasing competition from other footwear brands like New Balance, Adidas, and Hoka.

Outgoing CFO Matthew Friend deemed it an “increasingly challenging operating environment, where sell-through remains challenged.”

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