Markets
markets
Luke Kawa

Will gold keep leaving digital gold in the dust?

Gold is the best-trending asset in financial markets. The shiny metal hasn’t traded below its 200-day moving average since November 2023, and currently sits about 25% above that level. Not the S&P 500, nor the Nasdaq 100, nor even Nvidia can boast nearly as long of a positive streak.

And bitcoin, which has been called “digital gold,” certainly can’t either: in Q4, the crypto asset is behaving the opposite of gold, trading 20% below its 200-day moving average for the first time since Q4 2022.

Bitcoin has traditionally been a phenomenal barometer for assessing speculative vibes, which makes this year’s gap between its performance and that of fringier, unprofitable stocks amid a bevy of call buying even more befuddling. 2025 is poised to be the first year in over a decade that bitcoin has fallen relative to gold as the S&P 500 has increased. 

The ratio of bitcoin to gold hit its 2025 high the session after President Trump’s inauguration, and all-time peak in between the election and his returning to office. The idea that the “crypto president” catalyzed a “sell the news” dynamic for this pair at the start of his second term in the same way that “build a wall and Mexico’s going to pay for it” put in a pre-Covid top for USDMXN at the start of his first term looks fairly appealing, especially with a dearth of fundamental news available to explain crypto’s price gyrations.

1 BTC still = 1 BTC. But at its peak relative to the shiny metal, one bitcoin bought you more than 40 troy ounces. Bitcoin doesn’t weigh anything, strictly speaking, but it’s worth less than half its weight in gold now compared to then.

This ratio and its constituent parts are well worth monitoring into 2026, as they might shed light on whether bitcoin’s relationship with risk assets has changed in some enduring way, or if its major underperformance this year is a function of how strong returns were as it became apparent Trump would return to office in 2024.

Gold, meanwhile, remains worth keeping a close eye on as the strength and longevity of its march higher — reinforced by retail traders riding momentum, systematic strategies owning things that go up, and central bank buying — suggest that any break in this trend would require a meaningful shift in the investing or macroeconomic backdrop, and the fallout would extend far beyond the shiny metal.

For instance, based on data going back to 1975, the only time gold’s exceeded its current streak of trading above its 200-day moving average ended in 2011. That roughly coincided with the post-2009 intermediate bottoms for home building and banking stocks, which had been in a prolonged malaise even years after the post-financial crisis recession had ended.

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Helena Cheng

Lululemon’s stretch getting tested: Stock plunges after after outlook is cut

Lululemon shares are down double digits in premarket trading after the company cut its full-year sales and profit outlook, overshadowing a Q1 beat and raising fresh concerns about the brand’s turnaround efforts.

The company now expects fiscal 2026 revenue to be flat to down 1%, compared with its prior forecast for 2% to 4% growth. Guidance for full-year diluted earnings per share was dragged down to a range of $10.95 to $11.15, below the company’s previous guidance of $12.10 to $12.30 and well below Wall Street’s estimate of $13.26.

Key numbers for Q1:

  • EPS of $1.69 vs. the $1.68 expected.

  • Revenue of $2.47 billion vs. the $2.43 billion expected.

The modest top-line beat masked a widening divergence between Lululemon’s geographic markets. While international revenue rose 22% overall with a 30% increase in Mainland China, the bigger problem remains North America, where revenue fell 5%.

Interim co-CEO and CFO Meghan Frank acknowledged during the earnings call that recent product rollouts underperformed. A highly anticipated yoga campaign failed to generate its expected “halo effect” across broader product lines.

Profitability metrics took a major hit, with gross margins contracting by 410 basis points to 54.2% due to mounting tariff costs and promotional markdowns. Operating income consequently fell 37% year over year to $276.9 million.

“We experienced spikes of negative commentary in the media and on social channels with regard to our brand, which had an impact on traffic and overall top-line performance,” Frank said during the earnings call. “And second, not all of our product launches have met our expectations. While we have had several successful launches so far this year, we have seen others as we start Q2 not generate the anticipated guest response.”

Lululemon’s valuation has already been steadily compressing for years. While it was once one of retail’s richly valued stocks, investors have been questioning whether the company can return to the double-digit growth era.

The results also arrive during a leadership transition. Lululemon announced back in April that former Nike executive Heidi O’Neill is set to take over as CEO in September, with investors looking to her to revive growth in North America and restore the brand’s growth.

As Lululemon faces both macroeconomic pressure and brand-specific challenges, its stock has dropped around 40% year to date.

markets
Paige Oamek

US job growth skyrocketed in May, blasting past expectations

The US economy added 172,000 jobs in the month of May, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Friday, sending 10-year Treasury yields higher.

The strong May job market surprised economists. Experts had predicted only 85,000 new jobs — just half the reported number. The unemployment rate held steady at 4.3%, as expected.

The job growth story is a hopeful spot for the economy as consumers continue to feel inflationary pressure from the Iran war.

Job gains were buoyed by the leisure and hospitality sector, which added 70,000 jobs, as well as local government, healthcare, and education.

Both the March and April jobs reports were revised upward, making them collectively 93,000 higher than previously reported.

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