Who beat whom?

Happy Wednesday! The College Football Playoff committee finally released its rankings Tuesday night, and as is its custom, gave everyone something to argue about. We’ll dig into the rankings’ weirdest contradictions — including seven different cases where a team sits below an opponent it already beat — and see how the prediction markets are interpreting the committee’s first pass at the field. Plus, PSG is scoring Champions League goals at a record pace, the NBA returns after its Election Day break, and another full slate of European soccer gets underway this afternoon. Here’s what we’re watching today:

The Main Events

All listed times are Eastern.

Football:
🏈 CFB: Ball State (40%) at UMass (60%) - 7 p.m.
🏈 CFB: Toledo (95%) at Sacramento State (5%) - 7 p.m.
🏈 CFB: Central Michigan (50%) at Eastern Michigan (50%) - 7:30 p.m. (ESPN2) - Flip a coin in this “Directional Michigan” matchup.
🏈🏆 Super Bowl check-in: 49ers 17% to win the NFL title
🏈🏆 College Football Playoff check-in: Georgia 23% to win the national title 

NBA:
🏀 76ers (45%) at Pistons (55%) - 7 p.m. (ESPN+)
🏀 Timberwolves (27%) at Rockets (73%) - 8:30 p.m.
🏀 Mavericks (18%) at Spurs (82%) - 9:30 p.m. (ESPN+)
🏀🏆 NBA title check-in: Spurs 21% to win

NHL:
🏒 Senators (46%) at Sabres (54%) - 7:30 p.m.
🏒 Blackhawks (30%) at Panthers (70%) - 7:30 p.m. (TNT)
🏒 Sharks (41%) at Kings (59%) - 10 p.m. (TNT)
🏒🏆 Stanley Cup check-in: Hurricanes/Avalanche 12% to win

Soccer:
⚽ Champions League: AEK Athens (8%) vs. Real Madrid (82%) - 12:45 p.m. (Paramount+)
⚽ Champions League: Fenerbahçe (16%) vs. Liverpool (67%) - 12:45 p.m. (Paramount+)
⚽ Champions League: RB Leipzig (18%) vs. Manchester City (64%) - 3 p.m. (Paramount+)
⚽ Champions League: Borussia Dortmund (57%) vs. Real Betis (22%) - 3 p.m. (Paramount+)
⚽🏆 Champions League check-in: FC Barcelona 23% to win
⚽🏆 Premier League title check-in: Arsenal FC 71% to win
⚽🏆 Europa League check-in: SL Benfica 21% to win
⚽🏆 MLS title check-in: Nashville SC 21% to win MLS Cup (playoffs start Wednesday, 11/19)
⚽🏆 NWSL title check-in: San Diego Wave FC 27% to win (playoffs start Friday, 11/6)

College Basketball:
🏀 SE Louisiana at Auburn - 8 p.m. (SECN+)
🏀🏆 March Madness check-in: Duke 19% to win the men’s national title

Head-to-head-ache

The College Football Playoff committee released its first rankings of 2026 on Tuesday night — and let’s just say they generated some controversy.

Miami, Georgia and Utah at Nos. 1-3 weren’t surprising; that’s where they sit in the AP poll as well. But after that, all hell broke loose: The committee slotted in Notre Dame (No. 4 in the AP) at No. 11 despite the Irish’s 7-1 record — their only blemish being a 4-point loss at BYU last month — while placing 2-loss Alabama (No. 9 in the AP) at No. 5 in their rankings. Texas (No. 7 CFP; No. 10 AP) was also given a boost, fueling the usual complaints about SEC favoritism.

But maybe the even greater source of controversy had to do with the committee’s contradictory ranking logic when it came to head-to-head results. In seven different instances (involving 10 teams), there was a head-to-head result from the 2026 season that involved the higher-ranked team losing to the lower-ranked one:

To elaborate on just a few: No. 4 Indiana is eight spots ahead of No. 12 Ohio State, even though the Buckeyes beat the Hooisers a few weeks ago. Likewise, No. 5 Alabama is eight spots ahead of No. 13 Tennessee, even though Tennessee beat Alabama by 16.

The committee explains these discrepancies as part of their process — head-to-head results only get special consideration when teams are being compared within the same four-team “voting pod”.

“When you’re comparing teams head-to-head, they have to be in the same pod to be compared head-to-head,” Arkansas Athletic Director Hunter Yurachek, the committee chair, said.

This leads to bizarre results where a team who beat another team on the field can actually rank far away from them on the committee’s list, since (paradoxically) the further away the teams are, the less likely a head-to-head result is to be considered in the ranking procedure.

As for the market, here’s how their odds reacted to the initial rankings drop:

We see that, generally speaking, the rankings do matter. Which makes sense — they’re the committee’s first public statement around who they think is deserving right now. But the prediction markets are also trying to answer a slightly different question: Not just who looks the best today, but who is most likely to actually make the Playoff once the rest of the schedule, the conference auto-bids, and the committee’s final ranking process shakes out.

PS-Geez

If there was any doubt that Paris Saint-Germain was still the world’s best club soccer team, they’ve seemed intent on dispelling any of that in the league phase of Champions League so far. Les Parisiens came out and absolutely thrashed Spain’s Villarreal on Tuesday, netting four goals in the first 17 minutes of play — the fastest any team ever scored a quartet of goals in Champions League history — and eventually won by a score of 6-nil. The defending champs have now scored 20 goals in four matches (also a UCL record) while yielding just 5, good for a +15 differential that’s nearly double the next-best squad (FC Barcelona):

What else we’re reading

Smart, short reads we liked while building today’s odds.

🏀 “three from forty” by bang! NBA
🏒 “Quantifying Effective Hitters in the NHL” by Corsi Chronicles
🏈 “Breaking down the last 3 undefeated CFB teams / Miami, UCLA and Utah, just like we all predicted in August” by Brendan Farrell
🏁 “Hurricane Season Draws to a Close” by Aaron Bearden
🏒 “The Eternal Ryan Nugent-Hopkins” by Jonathan Willis

Next on deck…

Thursday (11/5)
🏈 Thursday Night Football: Jaguars at Ravens
🏈 CFB: JMU at Southern Miss
🏀 NBA: Heat at Warriors
🏒 NHL: Bruins at Penguins
⚽ Europa League: Marseille at Bayer Leverkusen
🏀 CBB: Wake Forest at #24 Vanderbilt
⛳ Golf: World Wide Technology Championship (Cabo San Lucas, Mexico), Round 1

Friday (11/6)
🏈 CFB: TCU at #24 Arizona
🏀 NBA: 76ers at Cavaliers
🏒 NHL: Sharks at Wild
⚽ NWSL Quarterfinal: #7 Utah at #2 San Diego
🏀 CBB: #4 UConn vs. #16 Michigan
⛳ Golf: World Wide Technology Championship (Cabo San Lucas, Mexico), Round 2

Saturday (11/7)
🏈 CFB: #1 Miami at #11 Notre Dame
🏈 CFB: #2 Georgia at #10 Ole Miss
🏈 CFB: #9 BYU at #3 Utah
🏈 CFB: #5 Alabama at #14 LSU
🏀 NBA: Knicks at Cavaliers
🏒 NHL: Canadiens at Maple Leafs
⚽ NWSL Quarterfinal: Angel City FC at Kansas City Current
⚽ Premier League: Manchester City at Nottingham Forest
🏀 CBB: NM State at #15 Gonzaga
🥊 UFC Fight Night: Waldo Cortes-Acosta vs. Johnny Walker
⛳ Golf: World Wide Technology Championship (Cabo San Lucas, Mexico), Round 3