The puck starts here
Happy Tuesday! It’s Day 1 of the MLB playoffs — check out yesterday’s post for our preview there — and the WNBA is already serving up a pair of elimination games (including the possibility that both Caitlin Clark and the pre-playoff favorite Lynx are — poof — gone). But at the same time, another season is just getting started: the NHL drops the puck tonight with wall-to-wall games, including an evening opener between the defending-champion Hurricanes and a Panthers team trying to bounce back into Cup contention. We’ll break down the unusually wide-open Stanley Cup picture below. Plus, the Bears just won a prime-time game with a third-string quarterback who hadn’t played in 1,000 days, because why not? Here’s what else we’re watching today:
The Main Events
All listed times are Eastern. 🚨= Elimination game
MLB:
⚾ Wild Card: Phillies (36%) at Braves (64%)* - Game 1 (Series tied 0-0), 2 p.m. (NBC/Peacock)
⚾ Wild Card: White Sox (46%) at Astros (54%) - Game 1 (Series tied 0-0), 5 p.m. (Peacock)
⚾ Wild Card: Red Sox (44%) at Yankees (56%) - Game 1 (Series tied 0-0), 8 p.m. (NBC/Peacock)
⚾ Wild Card: Cubs (45%) at Padres (55%) - Game 1 (Series tied 0-0), 10 p.m. (Peacock)
⚾🏆 World Series title check-in: Dodgers 31% to win
WNBA:
🏀 First Round: Aces (47%) at Fever (53%) - Game 2 (LVA lead 1-0), 6:30 p.m. (Prime Video) 🚨
🏀 First Round: Lynx (60%) at Liberty (40%) - Game 2 (NYL lead 1-0), 8:30 p.m. (USA Network) 🚨
🏀🏆 WNBA title check-in: Aces 26% to win
NHL:
🏒 Panthers (46%) at Hurricanes (54%) - 5 p.m. (ESPN) - Start of 2026-27 season!
🏒 Canadiens (51%) at Maple Leafs (49%) - 7 p.m.
🏒 Rangers (49%) at Bruins (51%) - 8 p.m. (ESPN)
🏒🏆 Stanley Cup check-in: Panthers 14% to win
Football:
🏈🏆 Super Bowl check-in: Bills 15% to win NFL title
🏈🏆 College Football Playoff check-in: Georgia 16% to win national title
Soccer:
⚽ UEFA Nations League: Spain (82%) vs. Croatia (8%) - 2:45 p.m. (FS1/ViX)
⚽ International Friendly: United States (70%) vs. Chile (13%) - 8 p.m. (TNT/truTV/HBO Max)
⚽🏆 Champions League title check-in: FC Barcelona 27% to win
⚽🏆 Premier League title check-in: Arsenal FC 59% to win
⚽🏆 MLS title check-in: Vancouver Whitecaps FC 25% to win MLS Cup
⚽🏆 NWSL title check-in: Gotham FC 25% to win
Let’s pucking go
Amidst all of the various playoffs happening — i.e., the beginning of the end for the MLB, WNBA and NASCAR seasons, among others — we’re also reminded of the rebirth that comes with a new season beginning, as is the case tonight with the NHL. The league’s 2026-27 campaign will officially hit the ice with a 5 p.m. puck drop (weird timing, but OK) between the last three Stanley Cup winners: the defending-champion Carolina Hurricanes and the former-dynasty Florida Panthers, who are hoping to resume their success after a “gap year” missing the playoffs last season.
Those two teams happen to also be two of the three clear favorites to win the Stanley Cup again this season, based on the prediction market odds on the eve of the season:
It’s interesting that the Panthers are simply assumed by the market to pick up where they left off, despite a drop-off last season, but traders are expecting better health from what was the most injured team in hockey a year ago, and they’re also pricing in the team’s new familial synergy between newcomer Brady Tkachuk and his brother Matthew, who’ve been a devastating duo for Team USA in international competition but will get to play together in the NHL for the first time. (The Cats are also breaking in a new goalie with veteran Jacob Markström in net, coming over from the Devils.)
But the Panthers are not particularly overwhelming favorites by any means, which speaks to the parity atop the league right now. Traders are not sold on Carolina as having surpassed Florida, but they’re certainly not ruling that possibility out. Out West, the Avalanche are favored after a dominant regular season, but one which led to a stunning sweep at the hands of Vegas. (Colorado heads up a Central Division that will be brutal again — featuring fellow contenders Minnesota and Dallas as well.) And the Oilers (who faced the Panthers in back-to-back Finals) are very much in the mix despite a down year of their own last season.
The most interesting teams might be in the next tier, which features what feels like an inordinate number of wild-card teams (metaphorically, and perhaps literally in the standings) who could do damage or fall by the wayside. That includes Montreal — who went on a perhaps fluky East Final bid, but also have lots of young talent — heading up last year’s group of breakouts (also featuring San Jose, Buffalo, Utah, Anaheim, and Philadelphia). It also includes more vet-laden teams like Vegas (who’ll be on their third coach in six months!), Washington (in Alex Ovechkin’s swan song), Tampa Bay (the dynasty who forgot how to win in the playoffs), New Jersey (can Jack Hughes please stay healthy?) the LA Kings and — we shudder to invoke them — the Toronto Maple Leafs.
Given how the NHL creates fake parity through the Loser Point and other standings tomfoolery, there is certain to be a logjam around which of those teams makes the playoffs and/or receives favorable paths in the seeding. And maybe that’s one of the biggest drivers of the relatively wide-open odds above: the league has layered one parity device on top of another, on top of another, until the whole sport exists in a permanent fog — like we’re all skating around in Game 3 of the 1975 Stanley Cup Final or something.
In Case of emergency
No Caleb Williams? No Tyson Bagent? It was no problem for the Chicago Bears on Monday night, as they took on the presumable Super Bowl contender — though maybe now, we’re not so sure — Philadelphia Eagles down TWO quarterbacks, and still came away with a 27-7 victory. This was a strange game all around, featuring Andy Dalton throwing an end-zone INT with Jalen Hurts in the medical tent, and a buzzer-beating Tush Push at the end of the first half. But the Bears dominated in no small part because third-string Case Keenum, who hadn’t played an NFL game since December 24, 2023 (or 1,009 days earlier), went 24-for-34 with 247 yards, 2 TDs, 0 INTs and added a rushing TD as well. According to Expected Points Added (EPA) above replacement, it was one of the best games by any NFL QB on at least a thousand “days of rest” since their previous appearance:
What else we’re reading
Smart, short reads we liked while building today’s odds.
🏈 “The Gators are Back” by Bobby Peters
🏈 “The NFL as seen by accountants” by Gregg Easterbrook
🏒 “Previewing every NHL team with 1 chart: Los Angeles Kings” by Brendan Farrell
🏈 “The NFL’s Global Problem: They Already Have a Football” by Ethan Strauss
🏀 “NBA Future of the Franchise Rankings 4.0” by Silver Bulletin
🎤 “Tom Brady up, Peyton Manning down” by Andrew Marchand
Next on deck…
Wednesday (9/30)
⚾ MLB Playoffs: Red Sox at Yankees (Game 2)
⚾ MLB Playoffs: Cubs at Padres (Game 2)
⚾ MLB Playoffs: Phillies at Braves (Game 2)
⚾ MLB Playoffs: White Sox at Astros (Game 2)
🏀 WNBA: Dream at Mystics (Game 2)
🏀 WNBA: Valkyries at Wings (Game 2)
🏒 NHL: Penguins at Flyers
⚽ UEFA Women's Champions League: OL Lyonnes vs. Chelsea
Thursday (10/1)
🏈 Thursday Night Football: Steelers at Browns
⚾ MLB Playoffs: Red Sox at Yankees (Game 3 - if necessary) 🚨
⚾ MLB Playoffs: Cubs at Padres (Game 3 - if necessary) 🚨
⚾ MLB Playoffs: Phillies at Braves (Game 3 - if necessary) 🚨
⚾ MLB Playoffs: White Sox at Astros (Game 3 - if necessary) 🚨
🏀 WNBA Playoffs: Liberty at Lynx (Game 3 - if necessary) 🚨
🏀 WNBA Playoffs: Fever at Aces (Game 3 - if necessary) 🚨
⚽ UEFA Nations League: Germany vs. Serbia
⚽ UEFA Nations League: Greece vs. Netherlands
⚽ UEFA Women's Champions League: Manchester City vs. Real Madrid
Friday (10/2)
⚾ MLB Playoffs: No games. (Off-day prior to Division Series)
🏀 WNBA Playoffs: Mystics at Dream (Game 3 - if necessary) 🚨
🏀 WNBA Playoffs: Wings at Valkyries (Game 3 - if necessary) 🚨
🏈 CFB: Penn State at Northwestern
🏒 NHL: Rangers at Red Wings
⚽ UEFA Nations League: Belgium vs. Türkiye
