Playoff mode
Happy Friday! Hopefully the end of your week is going better than it is for the Green Bay Packers, after they were booed off of Lambeau Field following a blowout loss to the underdog Falcons last night. (So much for thinking we know anything about the league right now.) Looking ahead, the WNBA regular season is over, the bracket is set, and Sunday brings four Game 1s — tipping off what looks like it could be an awesome postseason. We’ll break down the first-round matchups below — including a surprisingly tricky draw for top-seeded Minnesota. Plus, MLB enters its own final weekend with division titles, wild-card spots and seeding still on the line, so we’ll check out the latest odds. And of course, college football has a loaded Saturday slate, the Presidents Cup rolls on at Medinah and we’ve got the usual fall sports-weekend madness as we approach October. Here’s what we’re watching:
The Main Events
All listed times are Eastern.
Friday (9/25)
⚾ MLB: Orioles (44%) at Yankees (56%)* - 7:05 p.m. (YES / MASN / MLB.tv)
⚾ MLB: Rays (39%) at Phillies (61%) - 6:40 p.m. (FOX / MLB.tv) - 2008 World Series rematch :-)
⚾ MLB: Rangers (51%) at Twins (49%) - 8:10 p.m. (MLB.tv)
⚾ MLB: Astros (62%) at Athletics (38%) - 9:40 p.m. (MLB.tv)
⚾ MLB: D-backs (45%) at Padres (55%) - 9:40 p.m. (MLBN / DBacks.TV / Padres.TV / MLB.tv)
⚾🏆 World Series title check-in: Dodgers 32% to win
🏈 CFB: Clemson (52%) at Cal (48%) - 10:30 p.m. (ESPN)
🏈🏆 College Football Playoff check-in: Texas 15% to win national title
🏀 WNBA: No games. (Off-day before playoffs start Sunday, 9/27)
🏀🏆 WNBA title check-in: Lynx 44% to win
⚽ UEFA Nations League: Italy (43%) vs. Belgium (32%) - 2:45 p.m. (FS2 / ViX)
⛳ Golf: Presidents Cup - Round 2 (Foursomes) - 2 p.m. (Golf Channel / Peacock) - Medinah Country Club - Team USA 86% to win
Saturday (9/26)
⚾ MLB: Rangers at Twins - 4:10 p.m. (MLB.tv)
⚾ MLB: Rays at Phillies - 7:15 p.m. (FOX / MLB.tv)
⚾ MLB: D-backs at Padres - 8:40 p.m. (MLB.tv)
⚾ MLB: Astros at Athletics - 9:40 p.m. (MLB.tv)
🏈 CFB: #1 Texas (65%) at #14 Tennessee (35%) - 12 p.m. (ABC / ESPN+)
🏈 CFB: #17 Iowa (33%) at #18 Michigan (67%) - 3:30 p.m. (CBS / Paramount+)
🏈 CFB: #4 Ole Miss (40%) at #21 Florida (60%) – 3:30 p.m. ET (ABC)
🏈 CFB: #23 Texas A&M (24%) at #10 LSU (76%) – 7:30 p.m. ET (ABC)
🏈 CFB: #20 Oregon (60%) at #12 USC (40%) – 7:30 p.m. ET (NBC / Peacock)
🏈 CFB: #19 Missouri (33%) at #24 Mississippi State (67%) – 7:45 p.m. ET (SEC Network)
🏀 WNBA: No games. (Off day before playoffs start Sunday, 9/27)
⚽ Soccer: USMNT (66%) vs. Peru (16%) - 4:30 p.m. (TNT / truTV / HBO Max / Telemundo)
⛳ Golf: Presidents Cup - Rounds 3 & 4 (Fourballs & Foursomes) - 8 a.m. (Golf Channel / NBC / Peacock)
🏁 F1: Azerbaijan Grand Prix (Baku City Circuit) - 7 a.m. (ESPN / ESPN+) - George Russell 63% to win
🏁🏆 F1 title check-in: Kimi Antonelli 90% to win (Driver’s) / Mercedes 95% to win (Constructor’s)
🥊 UFC Fight Night: Raul Rosas Jr. (59%) vs. Raoni Barcelos (41%) - 8 p.m. (Paramount+)
Sunday (9/27)
🏈 NFL: Chiefs (86%) at Dolphins (14%) - 1 p.m. (CBS / Paramount+)
🏈 NFL: Ravens (63%) at Cowboys (37%) - 4:25 p.m. (CBS / Paramount+)
🏈 NFL: Rams (55%) at Broncos (45%) - 8:20 p.m. (NBC / Peacock / Universo)
🏈🏆 Super Bowl check-in: Rams 14% to win NFL title
⚾ MLB: Astros at Athletics - 3:05 p.m. (MLB.tv)
⚾ MLB: Rays at Phillies - 3:05 p.m. (MLB.tv)
⚾ MLB: Rangers at Twins - 3:10 p.m. (MLB.tv)
⚾ MLB: D-backs at Padres- 3:10 p.m. (MLB.tv)
⚾ MLB: Orioles at Yankees - 3:20 p.m. (YES / MLB.tv)
🏀 WNBA Playoffs: No. 8 Liberty at No. 1 Lynx - 1 p.m. (ABC / ESPN) - Game 1
🏀 WNBA Playoffs: No. 6 Fever at No. 3 Aces - 3 p.m. (ABC / ESPN) - Game 1
🏀 WNBA Playoffs: No. 5 Mystics at No. 4 Dream - 5 p.m. (ESPN2) - Game 1
🏀 WNBA Playoffs: No. 7 Wings at No. 2 Valkyries - 7 p.m. (ESPN) - Game 1
⚽ MLS: Inter Miami CF (44%) at Columbus Crew (33%) - 7 p.m. (Apple TV - MLS Season Pass)
⚽🏆 MLS title check-in: Vancouver Whitecaps FC 23% to win MLS Cup
⛳ Golf: Presidents Cup - Final Day / Singles Matches - 12 p.m. (NBC / Peacock)
🏁 NASCAR: Hollywood Casino 400 at Kansas Speedway - 3 p.m. (USA Network) - Kyle Larson 19% to win
🏁🏆 NASCAR Cup title check-in: Denny Hamlin 32% to win
Let the playoffs begin
Thursday night brought the conclusion of the 2026 WNBA regular season, and the postseason bracket is now finally set ahead of Sunday’s series openers:
These playoffs are shaping up to be really fascinating — here are a few things to watch in the first round matchups, along with Kalshi’s odds for each team to make the semifinals:
1 Minnesota (69%) vs. 8 New York (31%): This is a really tough draw for the Lynx right out of the gate. Minnesota has been the default choice as the league’s best team most of the year, and they finished the year ranked Top-4 on both sides of the ball with a deep well of contributors up and down the roster. But last year’s MVP candidate, Napheesa Collier, wasn’t as dominant after coming back from injury. Meanwhile, the Liberty were a better team than their record and they still have a ton of star power, led by Breanna Stewart and Jonquel Jones. If those two are healthy, I’m actually a little worried for the Lynx here.
4 Atlanta (69%) vs. 5 Washington (31%): Washington is probably the weakest playoff team on-paper, but they snuck up into the 5th seed by season’s end — which was good news for Atlanta, who got to avoid what was looking like a dangerous collision course with Indiana. The Dream are extremely top-heavy, with only four regular players who graded above-average by the LAKER ratings — but those four (Rhyne Howard, Allisha Gray, Jordin Canada, Angel Reese) are really good. Washington’s hopes rest on their defense and the play of lead guard Sonia Citron.
2 Golden State (73%) vs. 7 Dallas (27%): The Valkyries are the biggest favorites of Round 1, in a battle against Paige Bueckers and the Wings. Golden State had an unprecedented amount of success this season for a second-year franchise, so there may be some concerns about how well that will hold up through the playoffs. But Dallas is probably not the team to truly test GSV and their dominant defense.
3 Las Vegas (59%) vs. 6 Indiana (41%): Talk about STAR POWER. The Aces are led by arguably the greatest player in WNBA history, A'ja Wilson, who will soon be named MVP for a fifth time, plus additional names like Chelsea Gray and Jackie Young. And the Fever are obviously Caitlin Clark’s team, though Kelsey Mitchell, Aliyah Boston and Sophie Cunningham are also household names. Vegas is favored on the basis of being the defending champs, looking for their 4th title in 5 years, but the Fever have the W’s deadliest offense and absolutely could win — especially if Aliyah Boston’s lower-leg injury isn’t a serious concern.
Zooming out, the market still believes in the Lynx as a heavy title favorite, setting them at 44% (or nearly 3x anyone else’s odds) despite the difficult opening-round path. We’ll have to see whether that confidence proves correct, or if the rest of the playoff field is being undervalued.
The weekend stakes
Unlike the WNBA, MLB’s playoffs don’t technically start this weekend — the beginning of the wild-card round is slated for next Tuesday, Sept. 29. But from a certain point of view, there are a few “pre-playoff” knockout games to be played this weekend before the actual postseason begins. In the American League, the Astros-Rangers duel for the AL West crown (and with it the No. 3 seed) will finally be decided with Houston visiting the A’s and Texas traveling to Minnesota for their final series of the season. The two teams are tied, but my forecast model gives Houston the edge because they own the tiebreaker. (There’s also the matter of who wins the AL Central between Chicago and Cleveland, which determines who gets the 2-seed and a bye.) And then, the National League is threatening to get wild with the D-Backs trying to hunt down the Phillies; Philly’s magic number is 2, so they just need some combo of 2 wins + Arizona losses to make it… but you never know, with Philly facing Tampa Bay and Arizona visiting San Diego, a couple of good opponents. The Padres also have something extra to play for, since they’re fighting for the 4-seed and home-field in Round 1, while Tampa is already locked into the AL’s top seed regardless.
What else we’re reading
Smart, short reads we liked while building today’s odds.
🏈 “Is it time to rein in buy games in college football?” by Craig Meyer
🏁 “Chase this, haters: Joey Logano is fueled to be format-proof” by Nate Ryan
🏒 “Does Height Really Matter When Drafting Defensemen?” by Justin Giampietro
🏀 “2027 WNBA Free Agents List” by Richard Cohen
⚾ “Ayami Sato Is Baseball at Its Most Enjoyable” by ritmica
Next on deck…
Monday (9/28)
🏈 Monday Night Football: Eagles at Bears
⚾ MLB Playoffs: No games. (Off day prior to Wild Card Series)
🏀 WNBA Playoffs: No games. (Off day between First Round games)
⚽ UEFA Nations League: Belgium vs. France
Tuesday (9/29)
⚾ MLB Playoffs: AL Wild Card Series (Game 1s) & NL Wild Card Series (Game 1s)
🏀 WNBA Playoffs: First Round Playoffs (Game 2s)
⚽ UEFA Nations League: Spain vs. Croatia
Wednesday (9/30)
⚾ MLB: AL Wild Card Series (Game 2s) & NL Wild Card Series (Game 2s)
🏀 WNBA: First Round Playoffs (Game 2s / Game 3s)
⚽ UEFA Women's Champions League: OL Lyonnes vs. Chelsea
