Moving targets
Happy Monday! And so much for the favorites staying favorites. The Dodgers lost, the Aces lost, the Bills lost, and several other supposed NFL contenders took hits of their own — all of which reshuffled the title markets across baseball, basketball and football. We’ll look at just how quickly those odds moved around below. Plus, the White Sox and Guardians resume one of the youngest playoff matchups in recent MLB history, and a special anniversary Falcons-Saints MNF matchup closes out Week 4 of the NFL season tonight. Here’s what we’re watching today:
The Main Events
All listed times are Eastern.
Football:
🏈 Monday Night Football: Falcons (46%) at Saints (54%) - 8:15 p.m. (ESPN) - 20th anniversary of Hurricane Katrina homecoming game
🏈🏆 Super Bowl check-in: Rams 14% to win NFL title
🏈🏆 College Football Playoff check-in: Georgia 19% to win national title
MLB:
⚾ ALDS: White Sox (41%) at Guardians (59%) - Game 2 (CHW leads 1-0), 5 p.m. (TBS/Max)
⚾ ALDS: Yankees (54%) at Rays (46%) - Game 2 (TBR leads 1-0), 8 p.m. (TBS/Max) - Cam Schlittler starting for NYY
⚾🏆 World Series title check-in: Dodgers 28% to win
WNBA:
🏀 Second Round: No games. (Off-day)
🏀🏆 WNBA title check-in: Valkyries 35% to win
NHL:
🏒 Flyers (33%) at Lightning (67%) - 7 p.m. (NHLN)
🏒 Senators (52%) at Bruins (48%) - 7:30 p.m.
🏒 Jets (37%) at Penguins (63%) - 7:30 p.m.
🏒🏆 Stanley Cup check-in: Avalanche 14% to win
Soccer:
⚽ UEFA Nations League: France (67%) vs. Belgium (15%) - 2:45 p.m.
⚽🏆 Champions League title check-in: FC Barcelona 24% to win
⚽🏆 Premier League title check-in: Arsenal FC 58% to win
⚽🏆 MLS title check-in: Vancouver Whitecaps FC 24% to win MLS Cup
⚽🏆 NWSL title check-in: Gotham FC 27% to win
Favorites in motion
It was a jam-packed sports weekend, and that meant plenty of chances for our preconceived notions to be challenged by cold, hard reality. In both the MLB and WNBA playoffs on Sunday, the title-favorite going into the day lost — the LA Dodgers were defeated by the Atlanta Braves in Game 2 of the NLDS, drawing their series even at 1-1 heading back to the ATL, while the second-year sensation Golden State Valkyries put the Las Vegas Aces down 1-0 in their Semifinal series.
While the Dodgers remain World Series favorites, the Milwaukee Brewers are creeping up on them after taking a 2-0 lead over San Diego on an incredible walk-off comeback win. (It’s the closest anyone has been to dethroning LA as favorites in many months, if not all season.) And Las Vegas now ranks just third in the WNBA odds hierarchy, with the Valkyries taking over the top spot:
Meanwhile, in the NFL, the pre-weekend Super Bowl favorite Buffalo Bills fell to the New England Patriots at home, as the Bills’ defense helped Drake Maye look like, well, Drake Maye again. (With 19.2 QB EPA above replacement, it was Maye’s best start since December 28 of last year.) Buffalo was one of just a few well-regarded teams to fall, a list that also included the Philadelphia Eagles — who lost RB Saquon Barkley and then blew a 10-point lead with 4 minutes remaining against the LA Rams — and the Detroit Lions — who were torched by Bryce Young and the Panthers on Sunday Night Football — as well as the Cincinnati Bengals, LA Chargers and Houston Texans. And even among those who won, there were still losses; see Baltimore QB Lamar Jackson exiting against Tennessee and wearing a protective boot for his ankle.
As a result, we got another round of scrambling in the Super Bowl odds, which have a new-old favorite in the form of the Rams — ahead of the Bills, the still-undefeated Chiefs and 49ers, and the defending-champion Seahawks:
This fits with the theme of the weekend overall — nailing down a favorite sounds easy, but it can often be an exercise in hitting a moving target. One thing we’ve learned in covering these markets for almost a year now is that traders have a strong preference to revert to their own baseline talent assessments whenever results give them the excuse to. But in a short playoff series, or even the relatively small sample of an NFL regular season, those same results can override talent so quickly that there may not be enough runway left for the better teams to prove the market right. In those cases, the target stops moving only because somebody’s season also stops in its tracks — or they dig themselves too much of a hole in the standings to ignore. Weekends like this one are a good reminder of how that delicate dance plays out in the odds right in front of us.
Youth is served
As the Guardians and White Sox prepare for Game 2 of the Division Series this evening — Chicago won Game 1 Saturday — we as fans should get ready for the continuation of a really fun matchup between two teams of contrasting styles: Chicago as the big-time power-hitting squad with the great bullpen, Cleveland as the small-ball team with the stronger rotation. But what unifies them both is just how young they are — the White Sox had MLB’s fourth-youngest roster during the regular season, and the Guardians were sixth-youngest. It’s surprisingly rare for a postseason series to feature two such teams; in terms of average age across both rosters, this is the second-youngest Division Series battle ever, and the sixth-youngest series of any sort since the playoffs expanded beyond the World Series in 1969:
What else we’re reading
Smart, short reads we liked while building today’s odds.
⚾ “Popping the cork on corked bats” by Mark Kolier
⚾ “Scenes from a World(‘s) Series” by Paul Jackson
🥇 “The Week in International Sport: an Asian Games special” by Ben Wylie
⚾ “The Golden Law of Surprise October Afternoon Baseball” by Wax Pack Gods
🏁 “Max Verstappen Claims First Win Of 2026 At Chaotic Bahrain Grand Prix” by Formula Reports
Next on deck…
Tuesday (10/6)
⚾ MLB Playoffs: Dodgers at Braves, NLDS Game 3
⚾ MLB Playoffs: Brewers at Padres, NLDS Game 3
🏀 WNBA Playoffs: No games. (Off-day)
🏒 NHL: Islanders at Rangers
⚽ International Friendly: USMNT vs. Canada
Wednesday (10/7)
⚾ MLB Playoffs: Guardians at White Sox, ALDS Game 3
⚾ MLB Playoffs: Rays at Yankees, ALDS Game 3
⚾ MLB Playoffs: Dodgers at Braves, NLDS Game 4 (if necessary)
⚾ MLB Playoffs: Brewers at Padres, NLDS Game 4 (if necessary)
🏀 WNBA Playoffs: Liberty at Dream, Semifinals Game 2
🏀 WNBA Playoffs: Aces vs. TBD, Semifinals Game 2
🏒 NHL: Penguins at Capitals
⚽ MLS: Fire at Whitecaps
Thursday (10/8)
🏈 Thursday Night Football: Buccaneers at Cowboys
⚾ MLB Playoffs: Guardians at White Sox (ALDS Game 4)
⚾ MLB Playoffs: Rays at Yankees (ALDS Game 4)
🏀 WNBA Playoffs: No games. (Off-day)
🏒 NHL: Maple Leafs at Golden Knights
⚽ UEFA Nations League: France vs. Belgium
⛳ Golf: Baycurrent Classic, Round 1
