Monday night mayhem

Happy Monday! And once again, we are not easing into the new week —  because tonight’s biggest games all arrive at basically the same time. Around 8 p.m. Eastern, Tampa Bay can clinch the AL pennant, Golden State can seize a 2-0 grip on the WNBA Finals, and the undefeated 49ers get a chance to end NFL Week 6 in style against Washington. We’ll break down all the simultaneous playoff pressure below. Plus, college football just produced one of the most chaotic Saturdays in its history, with five of the top seven AP-ranked teams losing. What mayhem awaits us next? Here’s what we’re watching today:

The Main Events

All listed times are Eastern. 🚨= Elimination game

Football:
🏈 Monday Night Football: Commanders (20%) at 49ers (80%) - 8:15 p.m. (ESPN / ABC)
🏈🏆 Super Bowl check-in: 49ers 18% to win NFL title
🏈🏆 College Football Playoff check-in: Georgia 18% to win national title 

MLB:
⚾ ALCS: Guardians (42%) at Rays (58%) - Game 6 (TB leads 3-2), 8:08 p.m. (TBS / HBO Max) 🚨
⚾🏆 World Series title check-in: Brewers 62% to win 

WNBA:
🏀 WNBA Finals: Dream (44%) at Valkyries (56%) - Game 2 (GSV leads 1-0), 8 p.m. (Peacock)
🏀🏆 WNBA title check-in: Valkyries 66% to win 

NHL:
🏒 Ducks (44%) at Rangers (56%) - 7 p.m. (ESPN+)
🏒 Avalanche (68%) at Flyers (32%) - 7 p.m. (ESPN+) - Philly looks to win 2 in a row after 9 straight losses to start the season 😬
🏒 Sharks (43%) at Maple Leafs (57%) - 7:30 p.m. (ESPN+)
🏒 Penguins (37%) at Mammoth (63%) - 9 p.m. (ESPN+)
🏒🏆 Stanley Cup check-in: Panthers 12% to win

Soccer:
⚽ Premier League: Coventry City (17%) at Tottenham Hotspur (63%) - 3 p.m. (USA Net/Universo)
⚽🏆 Champions League title check-in: FC Barcelona 30% to win
⚽🏆 Premier League title check-in: Arsenal FC 59% to win
⚽🏆 Europa League title check-in: Juventus 17% to win
⚽🏆 MLS title check-in: Nashville SC 21% to win MLS Cup
⚽🏆 NWSL title check-in: Washington 36% to win

NBA:
🏀 Regular season starts tomorrow! 🎉
🏀🏆 NBA title check-in: Thunder 24% to win

🔍 FIND THE EDGE

Prime-time pileup

Hopefully you have a few screens ready for 8 p.m. tonight, because there’s a lot of high-stakes action going on at the same time.

In baseball, the Tampa Bay Rays will be at home — where they’re traditionally very difficult to beat — attempting to secure a spot in the World Series over the Cleveland Guardians. When we last left you on the newsletter, the Guardians were leading the ALCS 2-1 and had the next two games at home, which seemed to put them in pole position to take a shot at ending their 78-year championship drought. But the Rays had different ideas: They out-hit Cleveland 23-13 (with 10 hits from Yandy Díaz and Jonathan Aranda at Nos. 1-2 in the lineup) and got back to the formula that won them 98 regular-season games — constant pressure on offense and strong pitching, including another gem in Game 5 from starter Drew Rasmussen.

Now the Rays will send “Fastball” Freddy Peralta to the hill (after Peralta faced 3 batters in relief on Saturday night), with a chance to add another chapter to his special season, against what projects to be a bullpen game for the Guardians. Traders like Tampa’s chances — setting them at 58% to win the game and 82% to win the pennant overall, though they would be around 60-40 underdogs against Milwaukee if they get there.

Meanwhile, on the hardwood, the WNBA Finals roll into Game 2 after the Golden State Valkyries beat the Atlanta Dream 68-64 in Game 1 on Saturday afternoon. Golden State shot just 32% from the floor in what was not exactly an offensive showcase — Gabby Williams scored 26 to lead all scorers, but on 8-for-22 shooting, while no other member of the Valkyries broke double-figures. But it didn’t matter, because Golden State relied on a defense that has been their calling-card throughout their special run to the Finals.

Valkyries defenders held Atlanta to just 33% shooting from the field, including a miserable 4-for-25 (16%) from 3-point range, while limiting second-chance points — Golden State out-rebounded Angel Reese and Atlanta 12-7 on the offensive glass and 41-35 overall —  and forcing 12 turnovers. Despite leading 79% of the game, the Dream saw things slip away late when they were held to just 4 points in the final 7:16 of play, including zero points in the final 3:12.

But is winning ugly a sustainable strategy for three more victories? The Dream can probably expect at least slightly better offense tonight — though that’s probably true of Golden State as well. Either way, traders like the Valkyries’ chances: they give them a 56% chance to win Game 2, and a 66% chance to take the series.

As all of that is going on, don’t forget Monday Night Football, either — the 5-0 Super Bowl favorite San Francisco 49ers host the 1-3-1 (yes, that’s their record, not a basketball zone defense) Washington Commanders in prime time. And given the rest of the week’s results, the 49ers might be feeling uneasy: in 7 of the 13 games already played, the Elo rating favorite lost, including the Rams, Colts, Giants, Ravens, Jaguars, Eagles (although that one was less surprising with every Philly player injured, including QB Jalen Hurts) and Seahawks. A Niners upset loss would be the icing on the week’s football cake — but the market isn’t especially worried, setting San Fran as 80% favorites.

College chaos

Let’s just say that it was not a safe weekend to be a highly-ranked college football team. Out of the top seven squads in the AP poll heading into Week 7, five of them fell on Saturday, including No. 1 Georgia (to Auburn at home) and No. 2 Notre Dame (on the road at BYU). It was the first time in the 90-year history of the AP poll (since 1936) that at least five of the top seven teams lost on the same day, and the first time since 2012 that Nos. 1-2 lost on the same day. If that wasn’t enough, UGA’s loss — coming on the heels of Texas losing to Oklahoma last week — marked the first time since 1990 that the No. 1 team lost to unranked opponents in back-to-back weeks. The result was a brand-new 1-2 in this week’s poll (Miami and BYU), though the market still thinks the Bulldogs are the championship favorite.

What else we’re reading

Smart, short reads we liked while building today’s odds.

🏈 “No favorite is safe in football, college or pro” by Tyler Lauletta
🏈 “Despite Insanity, We May Now Know Who’s in Contention for the National Championship” by Edward Egros
🏀 “To win on borrowed time” by Jackson Frank
🏈 “The Chargers season has unravelled. Where they go next is anyone’s guess”  by Cam Smith
🏁 “A Chase Shakeup In the Arizona Desert” by Aaron Bearden
⚾ “The 1920 Class of Spitballers” by Pages From Baseball’s Past

Next on deck…

Tuesday (10/20)
🏈 CFB: South Alabama at Marshall
⚾ MLB Playoffs: Rays at Guardians, ALCS Game 7 (if necessary) 🚨
🏀 WNBA Playoffs: No games. (Off-day)
🏀 NBA: Thunder at Spurs - Opening Night! 🎉
🏒 NHL: Lightning at Golden Knights
⚽ UEFA Champions League: Paris Saint-Germain vs. FC Barcelona

Wednesday (10/21)
🏈 CFB: New Mexico State at Sam Houston
⚾ MLB Playoffs: No games. (Off-day prior to World Series)
🏀 WNBA Playoffs: Valkyries at Dream, WNBA Finals Game 3
🏀 NBA: Warriors at Lakers
🏒 NHL: Panthers at Senators
⚽ UEFA Champions League: Bayern Munich vs. Arsenal

Thursday (10/22)
🏈 Thursday Night Football: Patriots at Bears
🏈 CFB: James Madison at Appalachian State
⚾ MLB Playoffs: No games. (Off-day prior to World Series)
🏀 WNBA Playoffs: No games. (Off-day)
🏀 NBA: Nuggets at Thunder
🏒 NHL: Rangers at Maple Leafs
⚽ Europa League: AC Milan at Bournemouth