How sweep it is
Happy Friday! Baseball is halfway to a World Series matchup now, after the Brewers finished off a stunning 4-game sweep of the Dodgers on Thursday night — reversing last year’s humiliation and punching their first World Series ticket since 1982. We’ll look at just how improbable that sweep was — and what it means for Milwaukee’s title chances — below. Plus, Cleveland can take a commanding 3-1 ALCS lead over Tampa Bay tonight, the Broncos somehow won a football game with next to no offense, the WNBA Finals get underway between Golden State and Atlanta on Saturday, and a massive college-football Saturday is headlined by Big Ten rivals Ohio State and Indiana. Here’s what all we’re watching this weekend:
The Main Events
All listed times are Eastern. 🚨= Elimination game
Friday (10/16)
⚾ MLB Playoffs: Rays (50%) at Guardians (50%), ALCS Game 4 (CLE leads 2-1) - 8 p.m. (TBS / Max)
⚾🏆 World Series title check-in: Brewers 66% to win
🏀 No games. (Off-day; Dream-Valkyries Finals begins Sat., Oct. 17)
🏀🏆 WNBA title check-in: Valkyries 53% to win
🏈 CFB: Memphis (71%) at Tulane (29%) - 7:30 p.m. (ESPN)
🏈🏆 College Football Playoff check-in: Georgia 20% to win national title
🏒 NHL: Penguins (34%) at Avalanche (66%) - 9 p.m. (ESPN+)
🏒 NHL: Bruins (52%) at Ducks (48%) - 10 p.m. (NESN / ESPN+)
🏒🏆 Stanley Cup check-in: Avalanche 12% to win⚽ Bundesliga: FC Köln (26%) at Eintracht Frankfurt (53%) - 2:30 p.m. (ESPN+)
⚽ NWSL: Racing Louisville (20%) at Boston Legacy FC (61%) - 8 p.m. (Prime Video)
⚽🏆 MLS title check-in: Nashville SC 24% to win MLS Cup
⚽🏆 NWSL title check-in: Gotham FC 38% to win
🏀 NBA: Preseason action (regular season starts 10/20)
🏀🏆 NBA title check-in: Thunder 24% to win
Saturday (10/17)
⚾ MLB Playoffs: Rays at Guardians, ALCS Game 5 - 8 p.m. (TBS / Max) (if necessary) 🚨
🏀🏆 WNBA Playoffs: Dream (42%) at Valkyries (58%), WNBA Finals Game 1 - 3:30 p.m. (NBC / Peacock)
🏈 CFB: No. 16 Mississippi State (15%) at No. 22 LSU (85%) - 12 p.m. (ESPN)
🏈 CFB: No. 4 Ohio State (62%) at No. 5 Indiana (38%) - 12 p.m. (FOX)
🏈 CFB: No. 13 Missouri (34%) at No. 9 Ole Miss (66%) - 3:30 p.m. (SEC Network)
🏈 CFB: No. 6 Alabama (75%) at No. 14 Tennessee (25%) - 3:30 p.m. (ABC)
🏈 CFB: No. 18 Oklahoma State (36%) at No. 20 Houston (64%) - 4 p.m. (FOX)
🏈 CFB: No. 2 Notre Dame (79%) at No. 8 BYU (21%) - 7:30 p.m. (ABC / ESPN+)
🏒 NHL: Devils (43%) at Capitals (57%) - 1 p.m. (NHLN)
🏒 NHL: Hurricanes (62%) at Jets (38%) - 3:30 p.m. (ESPN+)
🏒 NHL: Oilers (44%) at Mammoth (56%) - 10 p.m. (ESPN+)
⚽ Premier League: Liverpool (34%) at Brentford (40%) - 10 a.m. (USA Network)
⚽ Premier League: Aston Villa (33%) at Newcastle United (42%) - 12:30 p.m. (NBC / Peacock)
⚽ La Liga: FC Barcelona (71%) at Real Betis (13%) - 12:30 p.m. (ESPN+)
⚽ NWSL: Gotham FC (39%) at Washington Spirit (38%) - 12:30 p.m. (CBS / Paramount+)
⚽🏆 Champions League title check-in: FC Barcelona 28% to win
⚽🏆 Premier League title check-in: Arsenal FC 63% to win
⚽🏆 Europa League title check-in: SL Benfica 18% to win
🥊 Boxing: Sebastian Fundora (92%) vs. Ermal Hadribeaj (8%) - 10 p.m. (Prime Video PPV) - WBC Junior Middleweight Title
🥊 UFC Fight Night: Joaquin Buckley (45%) vs. Mike Malott (55%) - 8 p.m. (ESPN+)
Sunday (10/18)
🏈 NFL: Texans (42%) vs. Jaguars (58%) - 9:30 a.m. (NFL Network) - London game
🏈 NFL: Ravens (66%) at Browns (34%) - 1 p.m. (FOX)
🏈 NFL: Chargers (21%) at Chiefs (79%) - 4:25 p.m. (CBS)
🏈 NFL: Bills (67%) at Raiders (33%) - 4:25 p.m. (CBS)
🏈 NFL: Cowboys (47%) at Packers (53%) - 8:20 p.m. (NBC / Peacock)
🏈🏆 Super Bowl check-in: 49ers 16% to win NFL title
⚾ MLB Playoffs: No games. (World Series begins Friday, 10/23)
🏀 WNBA Playoffs: No games. (Off-day)
🏒 NHL: Blue Jackets at Wild - 6 p.m. (ESPN+)
🏒 NHL: Hurricanes at Flames - 8 p.m. (ESPN+)
⚽ Premier League: Manchester United (33%) at Leeds United (41%) - 9 a.m. (USA Network / Telemundo)
⚽ La Liga: Sevilla FC (8%) at Real Madrid (80%) - 3 p.m. (ESPN+)
⚽ MLS: Columbus (34%) at Cincinnati (43%) - 5 p.m. (Apple TV) - Hell is Real Derby
🏁 NASCAR Cup Series: Freeway Insurance 500 at Phoenix Raceway - 3 p.m. (USA Network) - Ryan Blaney 21% to win
🏁🏆 NASCAR Cup title check-in: Kyle Larson 48% to win
🏁🏆 F1 title check-in: Kimi Antonelli 97% to win (Driver’s) / Mercedes 99% to win (Constructor’s)
October surprise
Faced with the prospect of permanently vanquishing their October rivals, the LA Dodgers, in an NLCS sweep on Thursday night, the Milwaukee Brewers appeared to falter — falling behind 4-0 in the second inning after Shohei Ohtani finally hit his first home run since August 18. The brooms looked like they might have to stay in the closet.
But, as had been their custom all series long, the Brew Crew set about erasing the Dodgers’ lead. By inning No. 5, they’d tagged Tyler Glasnow for 4 runs of their own, tying the game, and by the 6th they had broken through for a 5-4 lead. Tacking on another insurance run in the 9th, the Brewers finished off their supposedly unbeatable opponent before a bewildered Dodger Stadium crowd, with Aaron Ashby earning a 3-inning save to close out the series in four games.
It was, to put things plainly, one of the most stunning reversals of fortune in MLB history. Just a year ago, the Dodgers were the ones doing the sweeping. Now, the Brewers have pulled off the third-most unlikely four-game sweep (according to the pre-series odds) since 1985, per SportsOddsHistory:
Along the way, the Brewers outpitched the Dodgers, out-executed the Dodgers, and even beat the Dodgers at the power game that was supposedly going to doom their playoff hopes — out-homering LA 7-1 in the series.
With the Brewers officially punching their ticket, they are obviously leading the pack when it comes to the World Series odds. But they will also be installed as favorites no matter who they face coming out of the American League:
Speaking of, the Guardians beat the Rays 3-2 on Thursday afternoon to claim a 2-1 series lead in the ALCS. Game 4 is tonight at 8 p.m. in Cleveland, with the home squad looking at the chance to take a commanding 3-1 lead and truly be in the driver’s seat to face Milwaukee in the World Series. If that happens, we’ll get a battle of the two longest current MLB championship droughts — Cleveland at 78 years (they last won in 1948) and Milwaukee at 58 years (they’ve never won in their history, dating back to 1969).
Or, if the Rays come back and beat Cleveland, we’ll still get a team on a 29-year drought (Tampa Bay began play in 1998.) But either way, the winner this season will not be the Dodgers, a reality that seemed unthinkable just a few days earlier.
Winning ugly
While the Brewers were busy shocking the baseball world, the Broncos and Seahawks also played an NFL game Thursday night — one which seemed nominally interesting on paper, between two teams that might have even met in last year’s Super Bowl. (Seattle was there; Denver fell in the AFC title game.) But the game itself was a masterclass in winning ugly. Bo Nix of the Broncos continued to play like one of the worst QBs in football, mustering just 107 yards through the air, and Denver as a whole had only 168 total yards of offense… or 163 yards fewer than the average team produces each week. But through the power of forcing 3 Seahawk turnovers — including Ja’Quan McMillian’s pick off of Sam Darnold in overtime to set up Wil Lutz’s 53-yard game-winning field goal — Denver has now won 4 of 5 games, despite some of the most atrocious offensive performances you will see from a winning squad.
What else we’re reading
Smart, short reads we liked while building today’s odds.
⚾ “Farewell to the Dodgers, the Defining Team of a Broken Age” by Michael Weinreb
⚾ “The Playoffs And Parity” by Daniel Evensen
🏈 “Jeremiah Smith just might be the best to ever do it” by Craig Meyer
🏀 “How Tiffany Hayes Became the Valkyries’ X-Factor” by Marisa Ingemi
⚾ “How “Small Ball” Are the Four CS Teams, Really?” by ritmica
Next on deck…
Monday (10/19)
🏈 Monday Night Football: Commanders at 49ers
🏈 CFB: No games. (Off-day)
⚾ MLB Playoffs: Rays at Guardians, ALCS Game 6 (if necessary) 🚨
🏀 WNBA Playoffs: Dream at Valkyries, WNBA Finals Game 2
🏒 NHL: Penguins at Mammoth
⚽ Premier League: Tottenham Hotspur vs. Coventry City
Tuesday (10/20)
🏈 CFB: South Alabama at Marshall
⚾ MLB Playoffs: Rays at Guardians, ALCS Game 7 (if necessary) 🚨
🏀 WNBA Playoffs: No games. (Off-day)
🏀 NBA: Thunder at Spurs - Opening Night! 🎉
🏒 NHL: Lightning at Golden Knights
⚽ UEFA Champions League: Paris Saint-Germain vs. FC Barcelona
Wednesday (10/21)
🏈 CFB: New Mexico State at Sam Houston
⚾ MLB Playoffs: No games. (Off-day prior to World Series)
🏀 WNBA Playoffs: Valkyries at Dream, WNBA Finals Game 3
🏀 NBA: Warriors at Lakers
🏒 NHL: Panthers at Senators
⚽ UEFA Champions League: Bayern Munich vs. Arsenal
