Deal or no deal?
Happy Tuesday! The NFL trade deadline arrives this afternoon — and for once, the league’s usually-boring trade market actually feels lively. Jacksonville already spent Monday loading up on defense after Chicago made its own blockbuster move for Jeffery Simmons a few weeks ago, and several more big names could still be on the move before 4 p.m. We’ll look at why football’s deadline has historically lagged behind the other major sports below (and why that may finally be changing). Plus, Jaylen Brown faces Jayson Tatum and his old Celtics teammates tonight in Philadelphia, the second College Football Playoff rankings arrive later this evening, and college basketball serves up a big-ticket slate with Michigan State-Duke, Kentucky-Kansas, Florida-Florida State and Illinois-Texas Tech all on tap. Here’s what we’re watching today:
The Main Events
All listed times are Eastern.
Football:
🏈🔒 NFL Trade Deadline - 4:00 p.m. ET
🏈 CFB: Western Michigan (86%) at Akron (14%) - 7 p.m. (CBSSN)
🏈 CFB: Kent State (34%) at Bowling Green (66%) - 7 p.m. (ESPNU)
🏈 CFB: Ohio (53%) at Miami (OH) (47%) - 8 p.m. (ESPN2)
🏈🏆 Super Bowl check-in: 49ers 18% to win the NFL title
🏈🏆 College Football Playoff check-in: Georgia 32% to win the national title
NBA:
🏀 Celtics (52%) at 76ers (48%) - 8 p.m. (Peacock) - The Jaylen Brown Bowl
🏀 Bucks (10%) at Knicks (90%) - 7:30 p.m.
🏀 Thunder (55%) at Trail Blazers (45%) - 11 p.m. (Peacock)
🏀🏆 NBA title check-in: Spurs 24% to win
NHL:
🏒 Wild (54%) at Canadiens (46%) - 7 p.m. (ESPN+)
🏒 Avalanche (59%) at Maple Leafs (41%) - 7 p.m. (ESPN+)
🏒 Devils (58%) at Jets (42%) - 7 p.m. (ESPN+) - Connor Hellebuyck, sadly, not in action for NJ
🏒🏆 Stanley Cup check-in: Hurricanes 14% to win
Soccer:
⚽ UEFA Women's Champions League: Bayern Munich (54%) at PSG (26%) - 3 p.m.
⚽ UEFA Women's Champions League: Chelsea (84%) at BK Häcken (5%) - 12:45 p.m.
⚽ UEFA Women's Champions League: Manchester City (72%) at Inter Milan (15%) - 3 p.m.
⚽🏆 Champions League check-in: FC Barcelona 22% to win
⚽🏆 Premier League title check-in: Arsenal FC 78% to win
⚽🏆 Europa League check-in: SL Benfica 19% to win
⚽🏆 MLS title check-in: Nashville SC 24% to win MLS Cup (playoffs start Wednesday, 11/19)
⚽🏆 NWSL title check-in: Washington Spirit 45% to win (playoffs continue w/ semifinals on Saturday, Nov. 14)
College Basketball:
🏀 Champions Classic: #5 Michigan State (26%) vs. #2 Duke (74%) - 7 p.m.
🏀 Champions Classic: #24 Kentucky (36%) vs. #15 Kansas (64%) - 9:30 p.m.
🏀 #1 Florida (82%) at Florida State (18%) - 6 p.m.
🏀 #3 Illinois (57%) vs. #16 Texas Tech (43%) - 8 p.m.
🏀🏆 March Madness check-in: Duke 19% to win the men’s national title
Trade winds blowing?
This afternoon (4 p.m. ET) marks the NFL’s trade deadline, which would seem to be the perfect combination of America’s favorite sport and — as sports media — our favorite moment on the calendar to fixate on rumored team-switches and other mind-blowing transactions. (How many times on this very newsletter have we obsessed over trade-deadline comings and goings in the NBA, NHL and MLB?)
And yet, the NFL trade deadline has usually punched below its weight, compared with other sports. In large part that’s just because there is a lot less raw activity to be had in the gridiron version — here’s a comparison of total deadline (or deadline-adjacent) trades by year in each of the Big Four men’s pro leagues — the NBA, NFL, NHL and MLB — since 2021:
Whereas MLB will usually have a flurry of 50 or more total deals in the lead-up to the deadline, and the NHL sometimes joins that count, other sports are lower. The NBA is perhaps under-counted by this method due to the prevalence of intricate, multi-team deals that send huge numbers of players on the move — an average of 42.8 guys were traded per deadline from 2021-2026 — but even with that limitation in mind, basketball has more activity than the NFL as well. In contrast with the other sports, football typically sees a dozen or fewer deals get made in the week up to and including Deadline Day.
Why is that? Reasons vary, from the impracticality of plugging football players into complex schemes (with entirely new playbooks) at midseason to the difficulty of making trades work under the salary cap. To the latter point: Unlike other sports, where trading teams use the deadline to offload salary, the NFL’s system actually “accelerates” any remaining future signing bonuses onto a team’s balance sheet as so-called “dead cap” money, potentially discouraging teams from wanting to make a deal.
And in general, this has shown up with comparatively few true impact players being made available at or around the deadline. Below are the best players (by Approximate Value) to change teams in the week before and including NFL deadlines since 2021, with Roquan Smith’s 2022 trade from the Bears to the Ravens standing out as an exception to the general rule:
That could be changing, however, as teams get more creative with salary-cap management — and hoard draft picks less jealously. We’re seeing more in-season trades in the NFL in general, and in a comparatively wide-open NFL season such as this, more teams might be willing to go all-in and try to capitalize on their Super Bowl chances.
For an example, look to the Jacksonville Jaguars just this week. Not content to already be possibly the league’s best team, they acquired Jessie Bates III, Jordan Davis and Davon Godchaux in a single day on Monday, giving up 5 draft picks in the process. This comes on the heels of the Chicago Bears’ much-raved-about deal for Jeffery Simmons from the Titans a few weeks earlier. Maybe it’s desperation, or maybe it’s striking while the iron is hot, but NFL GMs are gradually starting to bring their league’s deadline up to meet the activity level of other sports.
Who’s next on the move today? Kalshi gives greater than 50% odds to deals involving Josh Downs of the Colts (79%), Riq Woolen of the Eagles (64%), Brian Thomas Jr. of the Jaguars (61%), Jonathan Taylor of the Colts (52%) and Budda Baker of the Cardinals (51%).
The art of revenge
Tonight, the eyes of the sports world will be upon the Philadelphia 76ers and Boston Celtics — and, specifically, Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum. The pair were previously together for 9 seasons in Boston, winning a ton of games and an NBA championship (with Brown being named Finals MVP). But an offseason blockbuster sent Brown to the Sixers, to eventually join a star-laden crew including LeBron James, and the Brown/Tatum relationship has reportedly soured. On his new team, Brown has become more of an ensemble player to start the year — in contrast to his leading role in Boston with Tatum sidelined most of last season — so it will be interesting to watch if Brown takes charge more in this particular game. If so, he’d be gunning to join this list of the highest Game Scores in an outing against a team you played for last season (since 2002-03):
What else we’re reading
Smart, short reads we liked while building today’s odds.
🏈 “No, 2026 Isn’t 2007. Here’s Why” by Steven Godfrey and Richard Johnson
🏈 “College football’s expansion is here, for better or worse (it’s worse)” by Tyler Lauletta
⚽ “Women’s sports have a venue problem. The NWSL playoffs are proof.” by Katie McInerney
🏈 “Why NFL trade deadline evolved from afterthought to hectic” by Carter Bahns
🏈 “The Vikings are out of answers” by Matthew Coller
👀 EYES UP
Next on deck…
Wednesday (11/11)
🏈 CFB: UMass at Toledo
🏀 NBA: Warriors at Rockets
🏒 NHL: Mammoth at Golden Knights
⚽ WSL Cup: Liverpool vs. Aston Villa
🏀 CBB: Marquette at No. 16 Michigan
Thursday (11/12)
🏈 Thursday Night Football: Commanders at Giants
🏈 CFB: Memphis at South Florida
🏀 NBA: Mavericks at Timberwolves
🏒 NHL: Canadiens at Bruins
⚽ UEFA Nations League: France at Italy
🏀 WBB: #2 UConn at #18 Ohio State
⛳ PGA Tour: Butterfield Bermuda Championship (Round 1)
Friday (11/13)
🏈 CFB: Illinois at #8 UCLA
🏀 NBA: Warriors at Spurs
🏒 NHL: Predators at Golden Knights
⚽ UEFA Nations League: Germany vs. Serbia
🏀 CBB: #12 Arizona at Auburn
⛳ PGA Tour: Butterfield Bermuda Championship (Round 2)
