Bubble trouble
Happy Friday! And welcome to a high-stakes weekend in sports. The defending Super Bowl champs are suddenly playing with very little margin for error, without QB Sam Darnold and sitting just outside the NFC playoff field — while division rival Los Angeles is right there beside them, fighting for what may effectively be the same postseason spot. We’ll look at how much this weekend could swing both teams’ playoff chances below. Plus, college football serves up a monster Saturday with Miami-Notre Dame, Georgia-Ole Miss, Alabama-LSU and Utah-BYU in the Holy War. Kyle Larson can also put a bow on the NASCAR title, and LIV Golf’s 5-year, multi-billion-dollar experiment has officially reached the end of the line. Here’s what we’re watching this weekend:
The Main Events
All listed times are Eastern. 🚨= Elimination game
Friday (11/6)
🏈 CFB: TCU (27%) at No. 22 Arizona (73%) - 10:15 p.m. (FS1)
🏈🏆 College Football Playoff check-in: Georgia 24% to win the national title
🏀 NBA: 76ers (58%) at Cavaliers (42%) - 7:30 p.m. (Prime Video)
🏀 NBA: Trail Blazers (42%) at Lakers (58%) - 10 p.m. (Prime Video)
🏀🏆 NBA title check-in: Spurs 24% to win🏒 NHL: Blue Jackets (38%) at Sabres (62%) - 7 p.m.
🏒 NHL: Sharks (29%) at Wild (71%) - 8 p.m. (NHLN)
🏒🏆 Stanley Cup check-in: Avalanche 12% to win
⚽ NWSL Quarterfinal: No. 7 Utah (15%) at No. 2 San Diego (63%) - 10 p.m. (Prime Video) 🚨
⚽🏆 NWSL title check-in: Gotham FC 25% to win
🏀 CBB: No. 16 Michigan (26%) vs. No. 4 UConn (74%) - 8 p.m. (FS1)
🏀 CBB: Northeastern (1%) at No. 9 Virginia (99%) - 5 p.m.
🎾 Tennis: Rolex Paris Masters, Quarterfinals - 8 a.m. (Tennis Channel) - Carlos Alcaraz 52% to win
⛳ PGA Tour: World Wide Technology Championship (Cabo San Lucas, Mexico), Round 2 (Golf Channel) - Benjamin James 14% to win
Saturday (11/7)
🏈 CFB: No. 9 BYU (38%) at No. 3 Utah (62%) - 12 p.m. (FOX) - The Holy War!
🏈 CFB: No. 5 Alabama (32%) at No. 14 LSU (68%) - 3:30 p.m. (CBS)
🏈 CFB: No. 2 Georgia (62%) at No. 10 Ole Miss (38%) - 7:30 p.m. (ABC)
🏈 CFB: No. 1 Miami (29%) at No. 11 Notre Dame (71%) - 7:30 p.m. (NBC / Peacock)
🏀 NBA: Nuggets (70%) at Pacers (30%) - 5 p.m. (NBA TV)
🏀 NBA: Knicks (64%) at Cavaliers (36%) - 8 p.m. (NBA TV)
🏒 NHL: Rangers (54%) at Kraken (46%) - 5 p.m.
🏒 NHL: Canadiens at Maple Leafs - 7 p.m. (CBC / Sportsnet)
⚽ NWSL Quarterfinal: No. 5 Angel City FC (25%) at No. 4 Kansas City (55%) - 12 p.m. (CBS) 🚨
⚽ Premier League: Arsenal (85%) at Hull City (5%) - 10 a.m. (USA Network)
⚽ Premier League: Manchester City (58%) at Nottingham Forest (19%) - 12:30 p.m. (NBC / Peacock)
⚽🏆 Premier League title check-in: Arsenal FC 71% to win
🏀 CBB: NM State (2%) at No. 15 Gonzaga (98%) - 9 p.m. (ESPN+)
🎾 Tennis: Rolex Paris Masters, Semifinals - 9 a.m. (Tennis Channel)
🥊 UFC Fight Night: Waldo Cortes-Acosta (67%) vs. Johnny Walker (33%) - 7 p.m. (ESPN+) - Heavyweight Main Event
⛳ PGA Tour: World Wide Technology Championship (Cabo San Lucas, Mexico), Round 3 (Golf Channel)
Sunday (11/8)
🏈 NFL: Bengals (61%) at Falcons (39%) - 9:30 a.m. (NFLN)
🏈 NFL: Packers (39%) at Patriots (61%) - 4:25 p.m. (FOX)
🏈 NFL: Raiders (20%) at 49ers (80%) - 4:25 p.m. (FOX)
🏈 Sunday Night Football: Buccaneers (29%) at Bears (71%) - 8:20 p.m. (NBC)
🏈🏆 Super Bowl check-in: 49ers 17% to win the NFL title
🏀 NBA: 76ers at Bulls - 3:30 p.m.
🏀 NBA: Lakers at Pistons - 6 p.m. (NBA TV)
🏒 NHL: Panthers at Bruins - 1 p.m. (NHLN)
🏒 NHL: Golden Knights at Sabres - 3:30 p.m.
⚽ NWSL Quarterfinal: No. 8 Seattle (20%) at No. 1 Gotham FC (58%) - 12:30 p.m. (ABC) 🚨
⚽ NWSL Quarterfinal: No. 6 Portland (22%) at No. 3 Washington (60%) - 3:00 p.m. (ABC) 🚨
⚽ Premier League: Aston Villa at Manchester United - 11:30 a.m. (USA / Peacock)
🏀 CBB: Arkansas (61%) at No. 9 Virginia (39%) - 1 p.m. (ACC Network)
🎾 Tennis: Rolex Paris Masters, Finals - 9 a.m. (Tennis Channel) 🚨
⛳ PGA Tour: World Wide Technology Championship (Cabo San Lucas, Mexico), Final Round (Golf Channel)
🏁 NASCAR: Cup Series Championship Race at Homestead-Miami Speedway - 3 p.m. (NBC) - Kyle Larson 18% to win 🚨
🏁🏆 NASCAR Cup title check-in: Kyle Larson 96% to win
🏁 F1: São Paulo Grand Prix at Autódromo José Carlos Pace - 12 p.m. (ESPN) - Max Verstappen 40% to win
Champs on the brink?
Despite only being Week 9 — the technical midpoint of the schedule — it’s getting to be a critical moment in the NFL season, as the playoff standings are looking mighty crowded. And right in the middle of it all are the defending Super Bowl champion Seattle Seahawks.
We knew the Seahawks’ title defense would be difficult, as they underwent a lot of offseason upheaval (from ownership to the coaching staff), and were relying on a repeat performance from both their elite “Dark Side” defense and quarterback Sam Darnold, who’d made an unlikely career transformation from draft-bust to solid-QB in his late 20s. Toss in a difficult NFC West division, and things were already looking like an uphill battle going into the 2026 season.
And then the games started — with Darnold being lost to injury almost immediately for the first few games. Backup Drew Lock rallied the troops to win both games before Darnold’s return, but the Seahawks have lost 4 of 6 since, including the stomping they received from the Chicago Bears on Monday Night Football. And now Darnold is out again, ruled out for this week after being assessed as week-to-week with a quad injury.
That’s not exactly ideal for a team with a 4-4 record, currently sitting as the last team out of the NFC playoffs if the season ended today.
The good news is that Arizona, the Seahawks’ Week 9 opponent, is one of the worst teams in the conference and just traded away starting QB Jacoby Brissett to the Ravens as Lamar Jackson insurance. Before beating the Dallas Cowboys in OT last Sunday — because of course the Cowboys found a way to lose that game — the Cardinals had lost 5 of 6 contests. But the stakes are high for Seattle in a game with their backup QB starting: According to my power ratings-based forecast model, Seattle’s playoff odds would shift from 38% (admittedly a bit lower than the market has them) to 43% with a win, but fall to just 20% with a loss — potentially putting the prospects of a return Super Bowl trip in serious trouble.
Complicating things more: The division-rival LA Rams — remember them as a supposed Superteam? — are tied with Seattle on record (4-4) and sit right next to them on the NFC’s postseason bubble. The Rams’ playoff odds are also in that 40-ish % range, and because of their two remaining head-to-head battles (December 25 and January 10) plus competition for the same playoff spot, there’s only an 8% chance both Seattle and Los Angeles can make the playoffs (like they did last season).
That means this very weekend is under the microscope, with Seattle hosting Arizona and Los Angeles visiting Washington. If both teams win, they’d each improve their playoff odds and maintain what is effectively a stalemate at the edge of the playoff picture. But if either one loses, they’ll fall behind in what would already be a tough hole to climb out of.
That’s sobering to think about, but it’s the harsh reality of the NFL. No matter if you’re the defending champs or a Superteam on paper, it’s easy to find yourself on the outside looking in.
The $5+ billion money-pit
After being unable to secure additional funding for what they termed “LIV 2.0”, the LIV Golf League notified a US Bankruptcy Court judge on Thursday that it was closing operations, officially ending the Saudi-backed breakaway tour after 5 tumultuous years. The legacy of LIV is complicated: It fractured the sport, helped drive up pay for players across the board, and left some of golf’s biggest names in limbo when it failed to attract enough star power to sustain itself. But it will primarily be remembered for burning through money — like, a lot of money. Between massive signing bonuses, huge tournament purses and the costs of operating a brand-new global tour — much of which was subsidized by Saudi Arabia's Public Investment Fund, not media rights (which made up only 5% of the league’s revenue) — it is estimated that LIV racked up $5-6 billion in cumulative financial losses, making it one of the most expensive failed experiments in sports history.
What else we’re reading
Smart, short reads we liked while building today’s odds.
🏀 “Are NBA Rookies Better Than Ever?” by Austin Cornilles
🏁 “What’s next for Denny Hamlin on his final ride in NASCAR?” by Nate Ryan
⚽ “Can Arsenal dominate the Premier League over several years?” by Grace Robertson
🏈 “So, Is the College Sports Bill Cooked? Short answer: Probably.” by Hector Diaz
⚾ “Tony Gwynn Becomes a .400 Hitter” by Pages From Baseball’s Past
Next on deck…
Monday (11/9)
🏈 Monday Night Football: Bills at Vikings
🏀 NBA: Nuggets at Rockets
🏒 NHL: Rangers at Oilers
⚽ Soccer: Frauen-Bundesliga: Köln vs. RB Leipzig
🏀 CBB: Wagner at No. 4 UConn
Tuesday (11/10)
🏈 CFB: Ohio at Miami (OH)
🏀 NBA: Celtics at 76ers
🏒 NHL: Wild at Canadiens
⚽ Champions League: PSG vs. Bayern Munich
🏀 CBB: Champions Classic - No. 23 Kentucky vs. No. 17 Kansas
Wednesday (11/11)
🏈 CFB: UMass at Toledo
🏀 NBA: Warriors at Rockets
🏒 NHL: Utah HC at Golden Knights
⚽ WSL Cup: Liverpool vs. Aston Villa
🏀 CBB: Marquette at No. 16 Michigan
