Culture
Chalamet with award at the Golden Globes
(Tommaso Boddi/Getty Images)
GOLDEN RATIO

Big winners at the Golden Globes could indicate this week’s Oscar noms

With the Academy’s nominations voting opening today, the results of the Globes might signal the direction of certain Oscars categories (statistically speaking).

Millie Giles

Awards season is now well and truly underway, and the 83rd Golden Globe Awards last night gave credence to much of what the Critics Choice Awards had indicated the week before.

Stars aligning?

Having scooped trophies for Best Picture at both ceremonies, things are looking good for Paul Thomas Anderson’s “One Battle After Another” for the honors circuit ahead; meanwhile, despite losing out on the top prizes, fan favorite “Sinners” has won in some adjacent categories, including the award for Cinematic and Box Office Achievement at the Globes.

In acting categories, Jessie Buckley has now won best actress for “Hamnet” at both the Globes and Critics Choice, as Timothée Chalamet also picked up acting awards at both ceremonies for his work in “Marty Supreme” — furthering his lead in the race toward the Best Actor Oscar against Leonardo DiCaprio, another top pick.

Gong show

For those whose eyes are planted firmly on the Academy Awards — which will see nominations voting open today, before results are announced on January 22 ahead of the ceremony on March 15 — the Globes have historically proved a useful indicator to predict the sway of Hollywood’s most prestigious awards show.

With data compiled by Statista, alongside results from the last decade across both awards shows, it’s clear that Best Actor and Best Actress winners at the Globes go on to have a good chance of scooping gold at the Oscars — even accounting for the former’s quirk of splitting major awards into “Drama” and “Musical or Comedy” (which can dilute the awards’ predictive power, per Numlock News analysis).

Golden Globes <> Oscars
Sherwood News

On the other hand, wins for Best Picture and Best Director at the Globes don’t make for surefire Oscar win indicators in quite the same way. Prediction markets, however, already seem pretty certain about their front-runners in both categories at present.

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Saleah Blancaflor

Drake whiffs on an expected No. 1 on Spotify

Drake started at the bottom and he’s here, but not quite at the top... of Spotify, at least.

It’s been nearly three weeks since Drake dropped his three surprise albums — “Iceman,” “Habibti,” and “Maid of Honour.” Heading into the month, prediction markets were rating it a near certainty, a 98% chance, that Drake’s sonic onslaught was enough to snag the No. 1 slot on Spotify at least once in June.

But, while he surpassed the late Michael Jackson and took up three slots on the Billboard album chart at once, his newly released songs haven’t quite cracked the popular music-streaming platform’s top charts, and market seem to think the moment has passed.

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(Event contracts are offered through Robinhood Derivatives, LLC — probabilities referenced or sourced from KalshiEx LLC or ForecastEx LLC.)

Spotify’s “Top Songs - Global” chart currently show that Jackson’s “Billie Jean,” which is more than four decades old, Justin Bieber’s “Beauty and a Beat,” which climbed back to the top of Spotify charts following his Coachella set in the spring, Olivia Rodrigo’s new angsty love song “The Cure,” and BTS’s “Swim” are all ahead of Drake’s “STFU Janice” from his “Iceman” album.

While Spotify previously reported last month that Drake’s “Make Them Cry” was the most streamed album in a single day this year, that was later revealed to be a data error.

Prediction markets currently show traders are betting there’s only a 15% chance Drake will have a No. 1 song on Spotify in June.

Meanwhile, Taylor Swift is in the lead at 98% — a day before the release of her new original song “I Knew It, I Knew You,” which she wrote and performed for Disney and Pixar’s upcoming “Toy Story 5” — followed by Olivia Rodrigo, whose highly anticipated album “You Seem Pretty Sad for a Girl So in Love” comes out next Friday.

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(Event contracts are offered through Robinhood Derivatives, LLC — probabilities referenced or sourced from KalshiEx LLC or ForecastEx LLC.)

Spotify’s “Top Songs - Global” chart currently show that Jackson’s “Billie Jean,” which is more than four decades old, Justin Bieber’s “Beauty and a Beat,” which climbed back to the top of Spotify charts following his Coachella set in the spring, Olivia Rodrigo’s new angsty love song “The Cure,” and BTS’s “Swim” are all ahead of Drake’s “STFU Janice” from his “Iceman” album.

While Spotify previously reported last month that Drake’s “Make Them Cry” was the most streamed album in a single day this year, that was later revealed to be a data error.

Prediction markets currently show traders are betting there’s only a 15% chance Drake will have a No. 1 song on Spotify in June.

Meanwhile, Taylor Swift is in the lead at 98% — a day before the release of her new original song “I Knew It, I Knew You,” which she wrote and performed for Disney and Pixar’s upcoming “Toy Story 5” — followed by Olivia Rodrigo, whose highly anticipated album “You Seem Pretty Sad for a Girl So in Love” comes out next Friday.

Pokemon cards

GameStop’s collectibles business just keeps booming, as “Pokémon” cards continue to fly

Collectibles revenue grew 65% year over year in its latest quarter.

culture
Saleah Blancaflor

Will critics and audiences go out of this world for Steven Spielberg’s “Disclosure Day”?

Legendary director Steven Spielberg is back with his first film in four years.

While 2022s Oscar-nominated The Fabelmans was a semi-autobiographical film, it looks like hes back to his sci-fi roots with the upcoming release of Universal Pictures Disclosure Day.

The movie stars Emily Blunt, Josh O’Connor, Colin Firth, Eve Hewson, and Colman Domingo, and follows a cybersecurity whistleblower (O’Connor) and meteorologist (Blunt) who work together to uncover government secrets and expose the truth about extraterrestrial life.

Some first reactions out of early screenings shared on social media have been praising the film so far. Germain Lussier, a senior entertainment reporter at Gizmodo, posted on X that the movie is Spielberg’s “best film in 20 years,” while many have praised Blunt’s performance as one of her best. Others have said it is reminiscent of the filmmaker’s other sci-fi classics like “Close Encounters of the Third Kind” and “E.T. the Extra-Terrestrial.”

To be considered “fresh,” movies have to receive at least 60% on Rotten Tomatoes. While the global embargo for formal reviews doesn’t lift until Tuesday, June 9, at 12 p.m. ET following more advance screenings in Los Angeles, New York, and other cities ahead of the June 12 release date, traders on prediction markets are currently betting there is a 68% chance that the movie will score above 85% on the site.

(Event contracts are offered through Robinhood Derivatives, LLC — probabilities referenced or sourced from KalshiEx LLC or ForecastEx LLC.)

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The movie stars Emily Blunt, Josh O’Connor, Colin Firth, Eve Hewson, and Colman Domingo, and follows a cybersecurity whistleblower (O’Connor) and meteorologist (Blunt) who work together to uncover government secrets and expose the truth about extraterrestrial life.

Some first reactions out of early screenings shared on social media have been praising the film so far. Germain Lussier, a senior entertainment reporter at Gizmodo, posted on X that the movie is Spielberg’s “best film in 20 years,” while many have praised Blunt’s performance as one of her best. Others have said it is reminiscent of the filmmaker’s other sci-fi classics like “Close Encounters of the Third Kind” and “E.T. the Extra-Terrestrial.”

To be considered “fresh,” movies have to receive at least 60% on Rotten Tomatoes. While the global embargo for formal reviews doesn’t lift until Tuesday, June 9, at 12 p.m. ET following more advance screenings in Los Angeles, New York, and other cities ahead of the June 12 release date, traders on prediction markets are currently betting there is a 68% chance that the movie will score above 85% on the site.

(Event contracts are offered through Robinhood Derivatives, LLC — probabilities referenced or sourced from KalshiEx LLC or ForecastEx LLC.)

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