Standard Chartered: Bitcoin’s dip below $100,000 is “inevitable”
Participants in prediction markets are also betting that bitcoin will dip below $100,000 this year.
Bitcoin is still struggling to rebound noticeably and is hovering around $108,000 Wednesday morning, a 14% drop from its October 6 all-time high.
Geoff Kendrick, global head of digital assets research at Standard Chartered, said that the drop below $100,000 is “inevitable,” but also said it will be “short-lived.”
“Stay nimble and ready to buy the dip below 100k if it comes. It may be the last time bitcoin is EVER below 100k,” he wrote in a Wednesday note, adding, “The question now is how far does bitcoin need to fall before finding a base?”
According to him, several factors are worth keeping an eye on, including gold vs. bitcoin flows and liquidity measures.
“Yesterday’s sharp gold selloff coincided with a strong intra-day bounce in bitcoin. Gold has been outperforming bitcoin a lot recently... something which has perhaps started to turn,” he wrote.
Finally, technical metrics are also of note, as the “50 week moving average in bitcoin has held since early 2023 (when bitcoin was 25k and I forecast it to reach 100k by end-2024),” he wrote.
Nonetheless, Kendrick told Sherwood News that he remains “very bullish long term... I’m forecasting 200k year-end 2025 and 500k end 2028.”
Meanwhile, market-implied probabilities derived from event contracts offered on Robinhood show that traders believe there’s a 66% chance bitcoin drops below $100,000 this year. Traders are pricing a 33% chance of a further drop below $90,000 in the predictions market.
(Robinhood Markets Inc. is the parent company of Sherwood Media, an independently operated media company subject to certain legal and regulatory restrictions.)
Nic Puckrin, cofounder of Coin Bureau, noted that bitcoin funding rates are trending into negative territory, while open interest is on the rise again.
“This suggests that traders are mostly opening short positions, and the 24-hour long/short ratio confirms this,” he said.
Puckrin said that the spark could come from the reopening of the US government or a softening of the US-China trade war. Failing that, next week’s Federal Reserve meeting is likely to bring another rate cut.
“At this point, there is more potential for good news than bad. This is precisely why traders should think twice before opening leveraged shorts right now. When everyone bets against the recovery, that’s often when it happens, and the reversal will likely be swift,” he said.
