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Ethereum stays range-bound as daily ETF inflows spike to highest since January

On Wednesday, spot ethereum ETFs recorded $169.4 million worth of inflows.

Sage D. Young

Even though ethereum is prone to volatility, the token has managed to hold within a range of $1,910 to $2,180 amid geopolitical conflict in the past week. 

“We started to see some conversation that crypto held up really well during that session, even in the face of what’s going on in Iran,” said Fredrick Collins, CEO of crypto analytics platform Velo.xyz

This feeds a theory that positioning is very light in the space. “Traders were cutting risk across all of their positions Monday morning — so if crypto held up, it suggests that very few people have any positions left in crypto,” Collins told Sherwood News.

“The value here as a safe haven has been unreliable, but recently it’s served as a strong portfolio ballast and that’s noticeable,” Collins continued. “I’d expect inflows to persist for a bit, and probably a lower-than-usual correlation to equities as well.”

The price action comes as spot ethereum ETFs saw $169.4 million in inflows on Wednesday, the most in a single day since January, per SoSoValue. To begin attracting people’s attention from a price perspective, ethereum would need to trade over $2,500, “given how beaten down it’s been,” Collins added. 

On the bearish side, Collins said ethereum falling under $1,900 would make it an asset in a clear downtrend. “Beneath $1,900 are prices weve spent a very low percent of the year at,” he said. “We can see the majority of the range post last months sell-off has been above it, and unless any further trips beneath it are short-lived, that would probably signify a bit of a defeat for all of the last months buyers.”

Hovering below the $2,100 level Thursday, ethereum is trading well under the cost basis of almost every ethereum treasury firm, data from blockchain analytics firm Artemis shows. 

For example, Bit Digital, a firm with one of the biggest stockpiles, at 155,434 tokens, said the total average acquisition price for its ethereum holdings was approximately $3,045, according to the firm’s monthly report published on Thursday. 

Market-implied probabilities derived from event contracts show traders are currently pricing in a 34% chance ethereum rises above $2,500 in March and a 17% likelihood the token climbs as high as $2,750.

(Event contracts are offered through Robinhood Derivatives, LLC — probabilities referenced or sourced from KalshiEx LLC or ForecastEx LLC.)

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Hyperliquid reclaims all-time high

HYPE, the native token powering perpetuals exchange Hyperliquid and its underlying blockchain, rebounded to reclaim its all-time high previously set at the start of the month.

Treasury firms Hyperliquid Strategies and Hyperion DeFi have also rallied as the token increased double digits in the last 24 hours to trade as high as $76.70, rising past its record price set nearly two weeks ago, according to CoinGecko. In the interim between all-time highs, HYPE pulled back to around $53.

The token has several tailwinds, the first coming from ETF flows. Since their inception in May, HYPE ETFs have yet to record negative weekly outflows, posting a cumulative total net inflow of $171.8 million, per SoSoValue.

The second comes from Hyperliquid spending basically everything it earns in fees to buy HYPE, a mechanism embedded into the protocol’s codebase.

The venue’s buyback funding mechanism is set to add a new source of yield. Validators of the network activated “AQAv2,” which means stablecoin deployers will share about 90% of reserve yield revenue on their supply within the protocol.

Around $6.1 billion of Circle’s USDC resides in Hyperliquid, per DefiLlama. Accrual begins on August 26 and the first payment is made on October 3, the network announced in its Discord channel last week.

A substantial amount of capital is riding on different positions of HYPE. In total, a move down to under $53 would result in the liquidation nearly 1.8 million HYPE worth of leveraged long positions on the on-chain perps venue, or $131.7 million, data from CoinGlass shows. For the upside, a climb above $100 results in the liquidation of more than 3 million worth of leveraged HYPE short positions, or $221.5 million.

HYPE’s rebound to all-time high comes after Michael Selig, chair of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, defended his agency’s decision to approve regulated perpetuals, or futures contracts without expiration dates, CNBC reported on Monday.

Last month, the CFTC approved bitcoin perpetual futures trading in the US through regulated prediction markets firm Kalshi and an affiliate of centralized exchange Coinbase.

“Perps are highly likely to become lightly regulated and thus approved in the US,” said David Pakman, head of venture investments at CoinFund.

“We expect to see perps for many different types of assets, from commodities to equities,” Pakman told Sherwood News.

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Crypto market snaps back as sentiment lifts, with altcoins from ethereum to XRP soaring

The market capitalization of the crypto industry has jumped around $83.2 billion in the last 24 hours, with privacy-focused token Zcash and worldcoin, the native cryptocurrency of the network backed by OpenAI CEO Sam Altman, leading market gains, jumping over 22%.

But the last 24 hours have been good across the board:

Investors have been eager to see some positive signs around the Iranian conflict ending, coupled with hopeful outlooks around the CLARITY act, both breathing some life into assets, Kairos Research cofounder Ian Unsworth told Sherwood News.

Simon Shockey, a crypto strategist at crypto wallet infrastructure firm Privy, said the upswing stems from several things converging. He pointed to how alt markets broadly were very oversold following the bug found in Zcash that shook confidence.

Friday, Zcash founder Zooko Wilcox said Anthropic didn’t find any more serious bugs with the Zcash protocol after Shielded Labs requested the AI firm run a security audit of the network with Mythos.

Shockey added that the pool of willing sellers has dwindled. Even if structurally, AI is a much more compelling and asymmetric bet in the eyes of allocators, many of these crypto assets have simply run out of marginal sellers despite some shorter-term narrative-driven pumps. The only people left to sell at this point are the teams themselves and VCs.

Net-net: oversold conditions plus exhausted seller bases plus a macro backdrop thats stabilized equals a snapback, especially in names that have real usage or community conviction behind them,” Shockey told Sherwood.

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