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Ethereum is seeing record activity. So why is its price struggling?

Analysts from Citizens JMP Securities expect fundamentals to play a greater role in 2026, despite ethereum’s predicament between network activity and price.

Sage D. Young

Ethereum has a dilemma. The network is seeing increased activity, and yet the price of its native token is struggling. 

Active addresses climbed to new all-time highs above 1.8 million to 2 million daily users last month, while transfers by smart contract interactions in the same period also reached record levels, data from blockchain analytics firm CryptoQuant shows. However, the network activity has not coincided with a strong asset performance for ethereum

“The disconnect with ETH price indicates that transactional activity alone is not translating into stronger investment demand,” CryptoQuant wrote in a Tuesday report. Instead of network activity, inflows provide a clearer signal for price dynamics — exchange and capital inflows capture the movement of capital toward potential selling venues. 

“The elevated ratio of ETH exchange inflows relative to Bitcoin suggests stronger relative selling pressure on ETH, helping explain its underperformance against BTC,” the report said. Bitcoin has dropped almost 20% year to date, while etheruem has declined nearly 31%. 

Ethereum’s one-year change in realized capitalization, a proxy for the net capital entering and leaving the asset, has also “fallen dramatically and recently turned negative, indicating that capital is exiting the network even as on-chain activity metrics reach record highs,” the report continued. 

Analysts constructive outlook

Despite the divergence between ethereum’s activity and price performance, fintech analysts led by Devin Ryan at Citizens JMP Securities laid out their constructive outlook on ethereum and leading treasury firm SharpLink Gaming in a note published on Tuesday, pointing to network’s share of the growing stablecoin and real-world asset markets. 

The outlook was also informed by institutional adoption of ethereum moving from pilots into production, autonomous agents executing on-chain transactions programmatically, and an evolving US policy backdrop following the GENIUS Act passage and progress on the CLARITY Act. 

The “recent ETH price volatility is detached from continued adoption within the Ethereum ecosystem, and as adoption continues, we project ETH’s price will increasingly be driven by real demand rather than overwhelmed by speculative flows still highly correlated to macro volatility,” the analysts wrote. “Our constructive ETH outlook is supported by growing adoption-driven demand for Ethereum blockspace, and we expect fundamentals to play a larger role through 2026.”

The price of ethereum sits at the $2,050 level, with traders betting on a move higher in March. Prediction market-implied odds of ethereum rising above $2,250 in the month has climbed to 54% on Wednesday, an increase from 43% on Monday.

(Event contracts are offered through Robinhood Derivatives, LLC — probabilities referenced or sourced from KalshiEx LLC or ForecastEx LLC.)

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Hyperliquid reclaims all-time high

HYPE, the native token powering perpetuals exchange Hyperliquid and its underlying blockchain, rebounded to reclaim its all-time high previously set at the start of the month.

Treasury firms Hyperliquid Strategies and Hyperion DeFi have also rallied as the token increased double digits in the last 24 hours to trade as high as $76.70, rising past its record price set nearly two weeks ago, according to CoinGecko. In the interim between all-time highs, HYPE pulled back to around $53.

The token has several tailwinds, the first coming from ETF flows. Since their inception in May, HYPE ETFs have yet to record negative weekly outflows, posting a cumulative total net inflow of $171.8 million, per SoSoValue.

The second comes from Hyperliquid spending basically everything it earns in fees to buy HYPE, a mechanism embedded into the protocol’s codebase.

The venue’s buyback funding mechanism is set to add a new source of yield. Validators of the network activated “AQAv2,” which means stablecoin deployers will share about 90% of reserve yield revenue on their supply within the protocol.

Around $6.1 billion of Circle’s USDC resides in Hyperliquid, per DefiLlama. Accrual begins on August 26 and the first payment is made on October 3, the network announced in its Discord channel last week.

A substantial amount of capital is riding on different positions of HYPE. In total, a move down to under $53 would result in the liquidation nearly 1.8 million HYPE worth of leveraged long positions on the on-chain perps venue, or $131.7 million, data from CoinGlass shows. For the upside, a climb above $100 results in the liquidation of more than 3 million worth of leveraged HYPE short positions, or $221.5 million.

HYPE’s rebound to all-time high comes after Michael Selig, chair of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, defended his agency’s decision to approve regulated perpetuals, or futures contracts without expiration dates, CNBC reported on Monday.

Last month, the CFTC approved bitcoin perpetual futures trading in the US through regulated prediction markets firm Kalshi and an affiliate of centralized exchange Coinbase.

“Perps are highly likely to become lightly regulated and thus approved in the US,” said David Pakman, head of venture investments at CoinFund.

“We expect to see perps for many different types of assets, from commodities to equities,” Pakman told Sherwood News.

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Crypto market snaps back as sentiment lifts, with altcoins from ethereum to XRP soaring

The market capitalization of the crypto industry has jumped around $83.2 billion in the last 24 hours, with privacy-focused token Zcash and worldcoin, the native cryptocurrency of the network backed by OpenAI CEO Sam Altman, leading market gains, jumping over 22%.

But the last 24 hours have been good across the board:

Investors have been eager to see some positive signs around the Iranian conflict ending, coupled with hopeful outlooks around the CLARITY act, both breathing some life into assets, Kairos Research cofounder Ian Unsworth told Sherwood News.

Simon Shockey, a crypto strategist at crypto wallet infrastructure firm Privy, said the upswing stems from several things converging. He pointed to how alt markets broadly were very oversold following the bug found in Zcash that shook confidence.

Friday, Zcash founder Zooko Wilcox said Anthropic didn’t find any more serious bugs with the Zcash protocol after Shielded Labs requested the AI firm run a security audit of the network with Mythos.

Shockey added that the pool of willing sellers has dwindled. Even if structurally, AI is a much more compelling and asymmetric bet in the eyes of allocators, many of these crypto assets have simply run out of marginal sellers despite some shorter-term narrative-driven pumps. The only people left to sell at this point are the teams themselves and VCs.

Net-net: oversold conditions plus exhausted seller bases plus a macro backdrop thats stabilized equals a snapback, especially in names that have real usage or community conviction behind them,” Shockey told Sherwood.

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