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Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong (The Washington Post/Getty Images)

Coinbase continues to sink following disappointing Q2 earnings

Beyond an overall revenue miss, transaction revenue was also down.

Shares of Coinbase, the largest crypto exchange in the US, are continuing to plummet following disappointing second-quarter earnings that missed revenue expectations yesterday.

The stock was down more than 15% in Friday trading.

Beyond the overall revenue miss, transaction revenue was also down 39% quarter over quarter, at $764 million, while subscription and services revenue came in at $656 million, down 6% quarter over quarter.  

Interestingly, after Bitcoin with 30%, XRP was the token with the highest transaction revenue, with 13% of the total, surpassing ethereum’s share.

Coinbase also reported that it added 2,509 bitcoin in Q2, to return to the 10th spot in the corporate bitcoin holder leaderboard.

Alexander Blume, CEO of Two Prime, told Sherwood News that with all of the momentum in the industry and the price of bitcoin on the rise, it’s somewhat surprising that Coinbase fell short. 

“In truth, though, much of the industry activity has been solely around institutional bitcoin, with altcoins and ancillary offerings being less successful over the past quarter,” he said, adding that the industry is becoming more competitive as TradFi enters as well.

One area where the company performed well was stablecoins, bringing in $332.5 million in revenue, up from $297.5 million in the first quarter. The company also expects stablecoins to continue as a driving force in the next quarter.

Coinbase has a minority interest in Circle and also shares any Circle Reserve Fund income “not allocated to partners 50/50 with Circle.” Circle’s USDC has a $64 billion market cap and is the second-largest stablecoin. Of course, the GENIUS Act, signed into law on July 18, will also unlock  “new opportunities for Coinbase and reinforcing U.S. leadership in digital,” per the shareholder letter.

Anil K. Gupta, vice president of investor relations, said he expects Q3 revenue in the $665 million to $745 million range, up 8% quarter over quarter, “driven by higher average crypto prices and stablecoin revenues,” according to the earnings call transcript.

Mark Palmer, senior research analyst at Benchmark, told Sherwood that the company’s softer-than-expected revenue growth, especially in subscription and services, was masked to some extent by the positive impact of Circle and USDC’s uplift during the quarter.

“It did so just as the prices of bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies were trading down, apparently due to the Federal Reserve’s decision to hold off on cutting interest rates,” he said.

Palmer also said that Coinbase’s quarterly operating performance is subject to seasonality, and that the company’s Q2 results reflect a period before the GENIUS Act was signed into law and before the House of Representatives passed the CLARITY Act.

“If the CLARITY Act also becomes law, then I believe those two pieces of legislation will be game-changers for Coinbase and its operating prospects. Given the context of that huge potential upside, a reversal in Coinbase’s share price due to a quarterly miss on subscription and services revenue seems trivial,” Palmer added.

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Hyperliquid reclaims all-time high

HYPE, the native token powering perpetuals exchange Hyperliquid and its underlying blockchain, rebounded to reclaim its all-time high previously set at the start of the month.

Treasury firms Hyperliquid Strategies and Hyperion DeFi have also rallied as the token increased double digits in the last 24 hours to trade as high as $76.70, rising past its record price set nearly two weeks ago, according to CoinGecko. In the interim between all-time highs, HYPE pulled back to around $53.

The token has several tailwinds, the first coming from ETF flows. Since their inception in May, HYPE ETFs have yet to record negative weekly outflows, posting a cumulative total net inflow of $171.8 million, per SoSoValue.

The second comes from Hyperliquid spending basically everything it earns in fees to buy HYPE, a mechanism embedded into the protocol’s codebase.

The venue’s buyback funding mechanism is set to add a new source of yield. Validators of the network activated “AQAv2,” which means stablecoin deployers will share about 90% of reserve yield revenue on their supply within the protocol.

Around $6.1 billion of Circle’s USDC resides in Hyperliquid, per DefiLlama. Accrual begins on August 26 and the first payment is made on October 3, the network announced in its Discord channel last week.

A substantial amount of capital is riding on different positions of HYPE. In total, a move down to under $53 would result in the liquidation nearly 1.8 million HYPE worth of leveraged long positions on the on-chain perps venue, or $131.7 million, data from CoinGlass shows. For the upside, a climb above $100 results in the liquidation of more than 3 million worth of leveraged HYPE short positions, or $221.5 million.

HYPE’s rebound to all-time high comes after Michael Selig, chair of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, defended his agency’s decision to approve regulated perpetuals, or futures contracts without expiration dates, CNBC reported on Monday.

Last month, the CFTC approved bitcoin perpetual futures trading in the US through regulated prediction markets firm Kalshi and an affiliate of centralized exchange Coinbase.

“Perps are highly likely to become lightly regulated and thus approved in the US,” said David Pakman, head of venture investments at CoinFund.

“We expect to see perps for many different types of assets, from commodities to equities,” Pakman told Sherwood News.

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Crypto market snaps back as sentiment lifts, with altcoins from ethereum to XRP soaring

The market capitalization of the crypto industry has jumped around $83.2 billion in the last 24 hours, with privacy-focused token Zcash and worldcoin, the native cryptocurrency of the network backed by OpenAI CEO Sam Altman, leading market gains, jumping over 22%.

But the last 24 hours have been good across the board:

Investors have been eager to see some positive signs around the Iranian conflict ending, coupled with hopeful outlooks around the CLARITY act, both breathing some life into assets, Kairos Research cofounder Ian Unsworth told Sherwood News.

Simon Shockey, a crypto strategist at crypto wallet infrastructure firm Privy, said the upswing stems from several things converging. He pointed to how alt markets broadly were very oversold following the bug found in Zcash that shook confidence.

Friday, Zcash founder Zooko Wilcox said Anthropic didn’t find any more serious bugs with the Zcash protocol after Shielded Labs requested the AI firm run a security audit of the network with Mythos.

Shockey added that the pool of willing sellers has dwindled. Even if structurally, AI is a much more compelling and asymmetric bet in the eyes of allocators, many of these crypto assets have simply run out of marginal sellers despite some shorter-term narrative-driven pumps. The only people left to sell at this point are the teams themselves and VCs.

Net-net: oversold conditions plus exhausted seller bases plus a macro backdrop thats stabilized equals a snapback, especially in names that have real usage or community conviction behind them,” Shockey told Sherwood.

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