Amid Mideast conflict, bitcoin is acting more like a risk asset than digital gold
The asset is once again not acting as a safe haven the way gold has.
Bitcoin is entering March after five consecutive months in the red, its longest losing streak since 2018, according to CoinGlass.
Bitcoin is not acting as a safe haven the way gold has after the US launched a series of attacks against Iran on Saturday, but is behaving more like a host of speculative stocks.
Shawn Young, chief analyst at MEXC Research, told Sherwood News that the US-Israeli strikes on Iran over the weekend put crypto under heavy pressure, with bitcoin falling below $64,000 on Saturday, triggering more than $500 million in liquidations. While it has bounced back since, the recovery “looks thin,” Young said.
“Once again, bitcoin is trading like a risk asset, not digital gold, when geopolitical pressure spikes,” Young said.
The $60,000 to $62,300 zone is the line to watch, Young said, adding that if it breaks, $56,800 comes into play. Reclaiming $71,300, however, would be the first real sign of a trend reversal, he said.
Meanwhile, Bitunix analyst Dean Chen said that if the conflict intensifies and safe haven demand rises, whether BTC can break through the overhead liquidation zone and extend into a directional trend will determine whether markets redefine it as “digital gold.”
“Conversely, a pullback toward the $64,000 support zone would reinforce its classification as a high-volatility risk asset,” Chen said.
Chen said that bitcoin’s movement is not just a geopolitical event trade, but also a stress test of bitcoin’s narrative positioning. The key variable is not short-term price movement, but whether capital chooses to incorporate it into core safe haven allocations during periods of heightened risk, he said.
Lacie Zhang, a research analyst at Bitget Wallet, echoed the sentiment, noting that what we are observing is less “geopolitical hedging” and more liquidity front-running — traders preemptively reducing exposure ahead of potential policy responses or further escalation.
Zhang said that bitcoin’s correlation with equities has intensified, while its link to safe haven flows has weakened in the short term.
