Bitcoin rallies on “renewed optimism” amid hopes of government shutdown ending
Market-implied probabilities derived from event contracts show that traders believe there’s a 29% chance bitcoin gets to $130,000 or above this year.
Bitcoin rallied over the weekend, after the Senate advanced a deal that could end the government shutdown and President Trump posted about a potential $2,000 tariff “dividend” for many Americans.
Bitcoin is up 3.6% in the past 24 hours, a welcome bounce after last week, when the asset dipped below $100,000 multiple times and bitcoin ETFs saw $1.22 billion in outflows. Reflecting the bullish sentiment, CoinMarketCap’s Fear and Greed Index rose to 29 on Monday morning, up from 24 on Sunday.
“The crypto market enters the new week with renewed optimism and cleaner positioning. The combination of fiscal clarity, stimulus momentum, and ETF flow stabilization sets the stage for a constructive November. The market isn’t euphoric yet but it’s pragmatic,” Timothy Misir, head of research at Blockhead Research Network, said.
Meanwhile, market-implied probabilities derived from event contracts show that traders believe there’s a 28% chance bitcoin gets to $130,000 or above this year. Traders are pricing a 9% chance it will hit $150,000 or above.
(Event contracts are offered through Robinhood Derivatives, LLC — probabilities referenced or sourced from KalshiEx LLC or ForecastEx LLC.)
Misir said that some risks to bitcoin’s recovery include continued ETF outflows, policy execution lag on the shutdown or the “tariff dividends,” and market leverage creep, adding, however, that the reset is over.
“The rebuild has begun. For allocators, this is a window to lean back in, not all in, but directionally, while keeping an active pulse on the market’s direction,” he said.
Nic Puckrin, cofounder of Coin Bureau, also told Sherwood News that while the end of the shutdown gives bitcoin permission to resume its rally, the missing economic data the Fed needs to decide whether to cut rates again next month could bring more volatility.
“I expect bitcoin investors will remain nervous until the monetary policy outlook becomes less opaque,” he said.
Maja Vujinovic, CEO and cofounder of digital assets at FG Nexus, echoed the sentiment, saying that while ending the shutdown removes a macro overhang, the bigger drivers for bitcoin remain ETF inflows and liquidity trends.
“Expect a relief bounce, not a regime change right away,” she said.
