Bitcoin plummets to its lowest price since May as index hits “extreme fear”

Bitcoin continues to slide, dropping below $95,000 on Friday morning, its lowest level since May, as the Bitcoin Fear and Greed Index hits 16, reflecting “extreme fear.” The asset is down roughly 24% from its October 6 all-time high, placing it in an “extremely bearish phase,” according to CryptoQuant analysts.

Several factors contributed to the shift in sentiment, including the price losing momentum after the October 10 “Big Liquidation” event, spot demand contracting, and stablecoin liquidity growth slowing, “failing to sustain its prior trend,” the analysts wrote.

In addition, the rate of long-term holders selling hit one of the highest levels so far this year, with around 815,000 bitcoin sold in the past month, “the highest level since January 2024, adding downward pressure to the price,” they said.

The US government shutdown created a black hole in the flow of federal data, and without a clear indication of how the economy is doing, investors may jump to worst-case scenarios, Nic Puckrin, cofounder of Coin Bureau, told Sherwood News.

“So, as the most uncertain FOMC meeting of the year looms, we could see a further flight to safety and defensive assets. Traders would do well to stay on their toes in the next few weeks, especially if they’re allocating to high-risk assets like bitcoin,” he said.

Meanwhile, bitcoin ETFs suffered $869.86 million in outflows on Thursday, the second-largest exodus since their inception.

“This, for us, indicates a broad de-risking across institutional and retail channels. The timing also aligns with the return of US macro data after the shutdown, as it tends to push crypto into a more rate-sensitive stance,” Vitaliy Shtyrkin, chief product officer at B2BINPAY, said.

So, what’s next for bitcoin?

In the short term, several risks remain, including failure to reclaim the 365-day moving average ($102,000), which could accelerate downside; continued ETF outflows; and macro spillover from equity markets if yesterday’s sell-off continues, Timothy Misir, head of research at Blockhead Research Network, said.

“This is a market absorbing too much supply with too little demand, and the imbalance is finally expressing itself,” he said.

Shtyrkin said that if the price consolidates below $94,000, bitcoin may move toward the $74,000 to $72,000 area, “which is the April 2025 zone tied to potential long-term MA crossovers (death cross) and wider resets.”

Longer-term, some analysts remain bullish, though they concede the recovery might take some time.

Kyle Chassé, founder of MV Global, told Sherwood that his base case is that bitcoin finishes the year higher, not lower.

“We’re seeing the early stages of a renewed liquidity wave, and those environments have historically punished cash and rewarded scarce, high-beta assets like bitcoin. This change in policy will take some time, but I believe BTC breaks a new all-time high by Q1 2026 and tops in 2026 H2 at a minimum $200,000,” he said.