Bernstein maintains bitcoin will hit $150,000 by year-end, but many experts think that’s “a stretch”

Bernstein analysts said bitcoin has bottomed out and will reach $150,000 by year-end, citing the maturation of the market structure and bitcoin ETFs attracting a “more resilient (and less speculative) source of capital.”

Bitcoin has been trading in the $69,000 to $71,000 range over the past 24 hours, flat on Wednesday morning.

An additional driver of Bernstein analysts’ optimistic projection is the asset’s outperformance of gold since the start of the Iran war.

“We continue to believe Bitcoin’s digital properties with global cross-border portability and censorship resistance is particularly valuable in periods of chaos,” Bernstein analyst Gautam Chhugani wrote in a March 24 note.

Chhugani called bitcoin’s drawdown the “weakest bitcoin bear case in history” in February, and added that bitcoin will continue to outperform, driven by strong institutional demand from ETFs, which have also proved resilient.

Though bitcoin ETFs recorded $66.6 million in outflows on Tuesday, they have registered $1.6 billion in inflows so far in March, representing the best month for bitcoin ETFs since October, according to SoSoValue.

In another differentiator from previous cycles, “where bitcoin faced boom-bust with retail flows,” Chhugani noted that long-term holders have remained resilient while retail investors sold.

“This ownership structure is unique to Bitcoin signifying long-term ‘believers’ who remain insensitive to Bitcoin volatility holding Bitcoin as a ‘store of value,’” he said.

Chhugani expects this to be an elongated bitcoin bull cycle, with the cycle potentially peaking around $200,000 by the end of 2027.

Yet many disagree with the rosy assessment of bitcoin’s trajectory, and some have more muted projections.

Pratik Kala, portfolio manager and head of research at Apollo Crypto, told Sherwood News that he agrees bitcoin has bottomed, as bad news didn’t push it lower on multiple occasions, “and the 68K mark is very sticky.”

However, he said that “150K by year-end is a stretch in my opinion. The journey to 100K must be passed first as a psychological level before looking further.”

Bitcoin hasn’t crossed the $100,000 mark since November 2025. 

Max Kahn, CEO of Digital Wealth Partners, agrees with Bernstein about bitcoin’s fundamental shift this cycle, where it’s no longer just a speculative, retail-dependent asset but rather a core component of institutional portfolios, which has helped its relative strength compared to past cycles. 

The idea that bitcoin has found a floor is attractive given how well it’s held key levels despite recent volatility, he said. “But calling a definitive floor is always difficult in an environment this dependent on policy and global risk sentiment. For bitcoin to more than double in value by year’s end, we’ll need to see an acceleration in new capital entering the market.”

Kahn said that the more realistic scenario is a choppier path higher, where price appreciation follows actual capital formation, whether through institutional adoption, new financial products, or broader market liquidity improving, rather than a straight-line move driven by sentiment alone.

Nic Roberts-Huntley, cofounder and CEO of Blueprint Finance, agreed that Bernstein’s price prediction of $150,000 would require a meaningful improvement in macro conditions — specifically clearer rate cut signals — sustained ETF inflows, and continued growth in areas such as stablecoins and tokenized assets.

“If rates stay higher for longer, geopolitical tensions escalate, or ETF flows slow, that upside timeline gets pushed out. The $150K target isn’t an unrealistic one, but the timing is highly conditional,” Roberts-Huntley said.