Did tech's AI obsession accidentally kickstart the next nuclear age?
Nuclear energy just might solve big tech's AI emissions problems.
In 2019 and 2020, big tech companies like Google, Microsoft, and Amazon made “net zero” pledges, stating that they would emit zero carbon emissions by either 2030 or 2040. The generative AI boom of the last two years, however, has proven to be a difficult obstacle in the fight to reduce emissions. Three months ago, I discussed how generative AI investments were causing a massive uptick in big tech emissions, quoting Google’s 2024 environmental report:
In 2023, our total GHG emissions were 14.3 million tCO2e, representing a 13% year-over-year increase and a 48% increase compared to our 2019 target base year. This result was primarily due to increases in data center energy consumption and supply chain emissions. As we further integrate AI into our products, reducing emissions may be challenging due to increasing energy demands from the greater intensity of AI compute, and the emissions associated with the expected increases in our technical infrastructure investment.
In May, Microsoft’s president, Brad Smith, made similar comments regarding AI’s impact on its emissions, per Bloomberg:
Now to meet its goals, the software giant will have to make serious progress very quickly in gaining access to green steel and concrete and less carbon-intensive chips, said Brad Smith, president of Microsoft, in an exclusive interview with Bloomberg Green. “In 2020, we unveiled what we called our carbon moonshot. That was before the explosion in artificial intelligence,” he said. “So in many ways the moon is five times as far away as it was in 2020, if you just think of our own forecast for the expansion of AI and its electrical needs.”
For context, Microsoft’s emissions increased by ~30% from 2020 to 2023. However, the big tech company may have found the solution to its emission woes: nuclear energy. According to The Information, Microsoft signed a deal to restart a nuclear power plant on Three Mile Island, the same site of the now-infamous 1979 reactor meltdown. This comes six months after Amazon signed a $650 million deal with Talen Energy to buy nuclear power for an AWS data center.
Why is this a big deal? Nuclear is, literally, the cleanest energy source we have, emitting just 6 tons of of CO2 per gigawatt-hour of electricity produced, compared to 11 tons for wind, 53 for solar, and 440 for natural gas, but nuclear gets a bad rap, largely due to disastrous accidents like Fukushima, Three Mile Island, and Chernobyl, leading countries to shy away from nuclear investment. Germany’s “green” party, for example, led the shutdown of the country’s final three nuclear reactors last year. However, even when you include reactor disasters, nuclear is really, really safe:
If energy transition is a priority, then nuclear can (and, frankly, should) play a large role, especially considering that it’s our most reliable energy source, but public opinion and government policy have been limiting factors in expanding our nuclear capabilities. Ironically, big tech’s emissions-heavy AI investment may prove to be the catalyst needed to kickstart more nuclear investment.
These tech companies have signaled that their AI investments are only going to increase as they fight to gain an edge in this market, and their best chance to limit emissions in the face of increasing energy needs is nuclear. In June, I noted that, so far, management consultants appeared to be the winners of generative AI growth. If energy usage continues to climb, nuclear might prove to be the next surprise beneficiary.
