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STATE OF THE UNION

As America celebrates Independence Day, the US economy is powering along

Happy July 4th — here are six charts about the economy.

As you settle in for your second, third — or maybe 70th if your name is Joey Chestnut — hot dog today, you may find yourself unwittingly entered into a conversation about the economy.

To arm you for such an event, here’s some data:

The US economy's H1 2025
Sherwood News

The reality is that, despite a slew of soft economic data — think surveys and sentiment polls — that spooked investors in the springtime, the world’s largest economy has chugged along just fine. And yesterday’s official labor market data showed that the country added another 147,000 jobs in June. Unemployment fell to just 4.1%, with trade uncertainties yet to meaningfully dent the economic data.

Of course, there are always risks. The “wall of worry” that investors have had to climb in order to get comfortable investing has been pretty substantial, with wars in Ukraine and the Middle East, continued trade uncertainty, and growing unease over the size of the federal deficit.

Even AI is a double-edged sword, with companies starting to make very real cuts to their workforces.

But dip buyers, both retail and institutional, can’t seem to kick the habit, leaving the S&P 500 Index at a record high just in time for America’s birthday.

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