Kalshi cofounder and CEO Tarek Mansour (Diarmuid Greene/Getty Images)

Americans may (finally) be able to bet on US elections

A judge's ruling could open the door for Americans to bet on US election prediction markets.

9/10/24 4:19PM

Polymarket has been one of the most-talked about companies during this election cycle, as the prediction market site has become a go-to source for tracking election odds. Nearly $760 million has been wagered on the outcome of the presidential election on Polymarket through August 2024, and even Bloomberg has now incorporated the company’s election odds data into its terminals.

The irony of Polymarket’s success is that it can’t operate in the United States.

After the CFTC fined Polymarket in January 2022 and ordered it to wind down its markets that “do not comply with the Commodity Exchange Act and applicable CFTC regulations,” the prediction market platform moved its operations overseas, and Americans have had no way to trade the US election markets (except through the use of VPNs, of course). However, that may be changing soon.

Kalshi, a New York-based prediction market platform that offers a variety of US regulator-approved event contracts, won a federal lawsuit against the CFTC regarding its plan to offer contracts based on which political party would control the House and Senate after the November election.

For context, Kalshi received CFTC approval to operate as a contract market in the US in 2020, and on August 29 of this year, the New York-based company was approved to operate as a derivatives clearing organization. However, the CFTC blocked Kalshi from offering election contracts in 2023, concerned that “they would involve unlawful gaming and other activities not in the public’s interest.” Kalshi subsequently sued the CFTC in the U.S. District Court for the District of Columbia, and last Friday, Judge Jia M. Cobb ruled in Kalshi’s favor.

The CFTC has since filed a motion to ask Judge Cobb to stay her order for 14 days after publishing her opinion, but, assuming the CFTC declines to appeal and/or loses an appeal, it looks like Americans will soon have access to at least one election betting market. Sherwood reached out to Kalshi regarding a possible timeline for this market to go live, but the company declined to share any details.

So what does this mean for the prediction market…market? First, it's important to note that this lawsuit only concerned two election markets: control of the House and the Senate. However, depending on Judge Cobb’s opinion and the CFTC’s response, this ruling could open the door for Kalshi to launch an expanded list of regulator-approved election contracts, including the outcome of the presidential election.

Additionally, Kalshi may be able to attract more institutional money to its election markets. In April 2024, Susquehanna International Group, Jeff Yass’s trading firm, launched a trading desk for event contracts, and the firm planned to act as a market maker for transactions on Kalshi. With regulator approval and a market maker on board, Kalshi is well-positioned to handle seven-figure position sizes that would help attract institutional money.

My question is: what comes after the election cycle? Obviously, the presidential election has garnered a lot of eyeballs, but it only happens once every four years. I’m curious to see if Kalshi will be able to build off election momentum (assuming that the company is able to launch its election markets) and continue to attract more capital to its other offerings, such as inflation readings and Federal Reserve rate cuts.

Max Knoblauch23h

The Trump administration is reportedly planning a 50% made-in-America requirement for USMCA tariff relief

Qualifying for USMCA-related lower tariffs may soon require more US-made vehicle components, according to reporting by The Wall Street Journal.

The Trump administration is reportedly planning to introduce a 50% US content requirement for vehicles covered by the trade pact to receive lower tariffs. The content would be measured by cost, according to the WSJ.

There currently isn’t any US-specific requirement for those lower tariff rates, but in order to receive preferential tariffs, vehicles are must contain at least 75% regional content (components made in North America). Per Reuters reporting, the Trump admin is seeking to raise the regional requirement to 82%.

These reported plans are subject to change as the US negotiates USMCA terms with Mexico over the next few months.

Overall, Tesla will likely have the easiest time qualifying for any stricter requirements. The automaker’s vehicles contained the highest amount of US/Canadian content in 2025, according to American University research. Ford, GM, and Stellantis all scored lower.

Notably: the underlying government data that many domestic content measurements rely on intentionally combines US and Canadian components, so it’s difficult to know exactly how much of any given vehicle is specifically US-made.

Exclusive | Trump Administration Wants Autos Under USMCA to Be at Least 50% Made in America

These reported plans are subject to change as the US negotiates USMCA terms with Mexico over the next few months.

Tom Jones5/29/26

The $640,000 Luce makes the average Ferrari look like a bargain

Put aside the shape; put aside the smoothing out of Ferrari’s iconic sharp edges; put aside, even, the calls from former Chairman and President Luca Cordero di Montezemolo to “take the Prancing Horse off.” On the grounds of price alone, Luce detractors might have a point.

By now, many of us will have read the criticisms of Ferrari’s first fully electric vehicle, as the Luce — which was unveiled to the world earlier this week and promptly saw the company’s shares crash out in New York and Milan — gets subtly shaded by competitors online and not-so-subtly shaded by basically everyone else.

What makes all of this worse for Ferrari is that, even by the luxury car maker’s notoriously high standards, they’ve slapped a pretty hefty price tag on the Luce, and the company’s CEO, Benedetto Vigna, has already been forced to defend the €550,000 ($640,000) price point, saying yesterday that it’s “fair to pay for innovation,” per Reuters.

While Ferrari’s cars have been getting more expensive of late, as recently as 2022, Ferrari’s average revenue per car sold was around $340,000. At nearly twice that price, this new electric model is obviously proving a little much (visually, conceptually, and financially) for many loyal and long-standing fans of the Prancing Horse to stomach.